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I am a decelerationist and you are too

I want everything and everyone to slow down, including myself. Although I’m appalled at the damage to people and planet from industrial consumer societies, I don’t want to accelerate their demise. Like you, I depend on society as it is right now. Therefore, it was surprising to learn that some people who recognise the mess we are in want to accelerate collapse and establish new societies, according to their own priorities. Many such people are insanely rich from investments in technology businesses. As author Naomi Klein writes “the oligarch class… aren’t content to just build the arks. They appear to be doing their best to create the flood.” Her book End Times Fascism, with co-author Astra Taylor, is bringing wider attention to the extreme ideologies of some billionaires. What can come from that awareness is not just negativity about those strange rich men appearing, too often, on our media feeds, but a dialogue on how to respond positively to metacrisis and collapse. In this longform essay, I will explain something called ‘accelerationism’, why it’s a bad idea, and how the deceleration of technology, economic activity, ecological destruction, and even our personal lives, is an important agenda.

After I drafted this essay, I thought it would be useful to double back and start here with a summary of what I mean in the title: I am a decelerationist and you are too. It’s because I want to slow down the destruction of the environment, despite it being too late to prevent a lot of damage. I want to slow down the collapse of societies, despite them being less ethical and beautiful than I imagine is possible. I want to slow down the pace of development and deployment of many technologies so that novel risks can be assessed and managed, despite recognising the many benefits that can come from technology. I want to slow down the system of economic expansion, which is driving the risky approaches to technology, as well as badly centralising wealth in ways that degrade society. I want to slow down the pace of life in general, so that we can be gentler with ourselves, each other, all sentient creatures, and wider nature. Amongst those of us who care for people and planet, I want to slow down the counter-productive compulsion to do more within the same ideology that caused our era’s scary metacrisis. And I want to slow down the misuse of the concept of deceleration, whether by the tech elites, or by some frustrated environmentalists. After years of researching this, and talking with people, I realise that everyone, once freed to analyse and introspect, is a decelerationist too. Yes, I know that’s a bold claim, but if you read to the end, you will see the evidence for it.

To get started, let’s look at the forms of collapse ‘accelerationism’. For some technophiles, it comes with the belief that technology can achieve a wonderful future where all problems are resolved. In particular, they believe that Artificial Intelligence (AI) will achieve some form of general or ‘super intelligence’ that will transform human capabilities. Some believers regard those computational systems as intrinsically valuable, or even potentially more so than sentient creatures, including us humans. The mistakes and psychoses involved in such views are something we will return to. But what is key here is that believers in the possibility of a technological utopia can regard the messiness of our current societies, comprising populations with different ideas, as an impediment to their vision. Consequently, they want to speed up the breakdown of such societies, or find new ways to exit them, such as within so-called ‘special enterprise zones.’

Before continuing, I should state I consider myself a ‘technophile’, as I have always been interested in the possibilities of new inventions. In 2007, years ahead of its popularity, I included Tesla as a ‘future maker’ in a high-profile report for the environmental group WWF-UK. In 2011, I mentioned Bitcoin in my TEDx talk on the need to change society’s relationship with money. In both cases, my views have since evolved on what problems those innovations can solve, or what problems they can make worse, and how they should be regulated. Being impressed with a technology, and open to its applications, does not necessarily blind anyone to the problems caused by how it is deployed.

Recognising the threats to the environment and humanity from hyper-financed and underregulated development of AI in particular, ‘decelerationism’ includes a belief in the need for restraint, so that civil society can better understand the smart policies to guide future AI development. Fortunately, earlier this year, Pope Leo made some clear calls for restraints on AI development. Now many surveys report a widespread belief that AI needs to be better regulated, along with Big Tech more generally. The recent rise of protests against data centres, due to their massive ecological footprints and limited local social benefit, is an expression of this trend. That does not mean that people want the banning of the more efficient opensource forms of AI, which use far less water and power by design, and which are the still-monitorable forms of Large Language Models. Rather, it means people prefer a pause on the development of self-authoring and autonomous forms of AI, as well as wanting international agreements to restrict their use in policing and warfare. Such a pause would enable assessment of what kind of incentives we want to guide AI development in future, informed by a reasonable scepticism that neither geopolitical strength nor profit maximisation are the best drivers of this tech for humanity (issues I reflected on earlier this year). With this in mind, we can question whether the recent concerns of some executives within US Big Tech reflect their wish to restrict competition from cheaper opensource models (when they call for new regulations to reduce risk). 

It is the logic, reasonableness, and widespread nature of concern about the pace and direction of tech development that means I am guessing that you might already be a bit decelerationist. That does not mean you are technophobic, or that you don’t see a useful role for the deployment of well-governed AI. It means you are in touch with the obvious truth that technology is a subset of material reality, that it depends on the environment, and should be guided to serve humanity in general. Intellectually lazy people might dismiss us as luddites, but a more accurate term might be ‘post-Luddite’, due to the belief in maintaining a balanced approach to the pros and cons of technologies. 

Let’s move onto another good reason for decelerating the process of societal collapse. It is the simple fact that, despite its flaws and destructiveness, billions of us rely on industrial consumer societies for all sorts of things that we don’t produce ourselves. As supply chains have stretched, and mass production increased, there are far fewer means of providing our basic needs from local sources than before. Medicines, spectacles, light bulbs — there is so much that we benefit from and rely upon. Like most people I chat to about this, I prefer that we get more time to re-localise what we can of production, give up what we can, and restore the systems that we can, before we are forced to change through disruptions to our economies. Although I recognise that some peoples might benefit from less destruction of their natural environment if the industrialised world collapsed, that is not a clear enough outcome for me to not want to slow the demise of the systems that I, and everyone I know, rely upon.

Phobic responses to reality

Some technocentric accelerationists are aware of the evidence that human societies are hitting ecological limits and suffering as a consequence. My book Breaking Together compiled the evidence for such a view on the unfolding processes of societal collapse. In their economic privilege, most accelerationists can avoid being badly affected in the near term as humanity crosses planetary boundaries. However, like all of us, they assume stories of the way the world is, including the place of humanity, and what is good about themselves – all of which are challenged when recognising the ecological redundancy of existing models of social organisation. Two years ago, I jokingly described the emergence of ‘collapsis’ as “the novel psychological condition of believing illogical ideas to explain the unfolding breakdown of modern societies.” I listed many. But back then I didn’t realise that one delusional way of responding to the creeping collapse of society would be to want to speed it up! But now I see that response can be explained by a psychological ‘pay off’ for people who try to avoid the pain of questioning their values and identity. Allow me to explain…

If someone experiences fear and anger at the demise of the story of human domination of nature and, along with that, their role and value in that conquest, then they could change the frame within which they see any data on social and environmental degradation. They could choose to regard it all as a necessary bottleneck for humanity, and perhaps nature, before entering an era of more human domination of nature and outer space. Then, to make this novel perspective feel more real to them, and to reassert their illusion of human domination over nature, they could adopt the view that accelerating the disruptions would help speed up what comes after a collapse. Such a perspective additionally offers such believers some ‘narrative cover’ for being increasingly numb to the massive suffering to humans and other beings that is caused by the systems they disproportionately benefit from, and which some of them shape, or even impose on the rest of us.

People afflicted by this diseased form of thinking can then adopt sociopathic theories like some variants of tech ‘longtermism’, where they pretend that consciousness-mimicking machines are somehow intrinsically valuable in comparison to the living world and human consciousness. Such people are also attracted to theories that human consciousness is nothing more than an illusion formed by our ‘fleshy machinery’. The promotion of the scientifically weak claims against relative free will, which I documented previously, is also a way of seeking some ideological cover for the idea that AI ‘agents’ should be regarded to have equivalent personhood to humans (and thus reduce the legal liability of their developers).

One of the clearest signs of an ideology and identity being under pressure from the reality of a living world that is being damaged by globalised capitalism, is that some of the tech oligarchs have turned to promoting bizarre theories on morality. Which brings us to the billionaire Peter Theil. He has been giving speeches where he claims that those of us who condemn unregulated profit maximising approaches to technology are either anti-society, anti-human, or even, wait-for-it, comprising a collective Anti-Christ. Obviously, there is nothing in any Christian teaching that destroying the natural world and impoverishing people to make faster computer chips and more powerful software is God’s will. Indeed, all religious traditions and spiritual philosophies point to an opposite view — that a fear of death and of personal insignificance drives the human desire to control others and nature, rather than us living in divine grace and gratitude. Although there might be some deep psychological issues within people trying to imagine an evil entity outside of themselves and dress that in religious terminology, in this case, Theil’s claim might merely be a cover story for justifying global domination.

In wise and free societies, people with obviously illogical, and possibly paranoid, ideas would be ignored or ostracised. Sadly, power has been given over to a network of international capitalists and computer geeks who fund prestigious university departments and scholars, and who wield incredible powers of mass manipulation through social media. If you are interested in looking deeper on this bizarre quirk in the metacrisis, philosopher Emile Torres has done some crucial reporting on the development and promotion of these ideas, and how they are providing self-justifications amongst the tech titans (and those tempted by their power and money).

This ‘collapse accelerationism’ of elites was foretold in science fiction writing by Hugh Howey, which has now become the successful TV series Silo. In that story, a cabal of billionaires, politicians, and scholars, concluded that civilisation was going to be destroyed by a technological catastrophe, so they should destroy it on their own timetable, to preserve a population underground, which they would shape to then repopulate the planet with a different form of society. (If you haven’t seen it, I recommend it — just forget this slight plot spoiler!).

Unlike Hugh, the accelerationism of elites is something I did not foresee. However, it is in the same psychological ballpark of the reckless responses to collapse awareness that I noticed and commented on years ago. Specifically, the realisation amongst some epidemiologists that we are entering an age of regular pandemics, led them to fund highly dangerous research on pathogens. That is something I explained when looking at the extent of lab leaks of dangerous human-influenced viruses. The same rationale is now growing for taking major planetary risks with some ‘solar radiation management’ techniques. In all these situations, the same wish to avoid experiencing dread and despair, and the same clinging to old stories of human supremacy and personal power, is involved in the reckless agendas. It is also the root cause of the proto-authoritarianism I am hearing amongst some environmentalists as they become exasperated at the direction of humanity, but don’t look at their own role in perpetuating the systems of capitalism and imperialism which produced the tragedy. That’s a topic I’ve discussed in depth before.

Rich accelerationists aren’t yet the main reason for the accelerating mess in societies around the world, but they aren’t helping. That is not only through their reckless approach to AI, including their lobbying for lax regulations and more massive datacentres. Additionally, the Tech Bros and their investor friends are funding ethno-nationalisms around the world, so that more of us turn on each other, rather than turn against them and their puppets in government. Some of them justify their approach, by choosing to believe that because humanity needs to triage declining world resources, Judaeo-Christian cultures should club together in a mean-spirited death match of civilisations. They are finding some odd bedfellows for such views, amongst Christian congregations who are misled to think that regarding these as the ‘End Times’ means we forget Jesus’ teachings that we care for the oppressed and we seek peace. Another example of the damage being done by rich accelerationists is their recent shaping of new currency orders, including those ‘stable coins’ which game the markets and enrich the corrupt. On that agenda, Jeffrey Epstein and Howard Lutnick weren’t just physical neighbours — they were ideological ones. The political project they appear to share with the accelerationist billionaires is to replace nation states altogether with corporate monarchies. That also works as a handy cover story for avoiding more taxes in luxury gated communities (dubbed ‘network states’ by their fans).

It must be embarrassing to some of the guys who took pride in being free thinkers and ‘sovereign individuals’ that they now champion the views of elites who try to control everyone, enrich themselves, and remake the world in their own image. Their sycophancy sometimes turns aggressive, with calls for hurting the lives of people who disagree with their accelerationism. This ‘vibe’ is illustrated by the popular posts of someone presenting as ‘Beff Jezus,’ who regards calls for reasonable restraint and guidance on AI as evil and wants people to hack ‘opponents’ rather than just make their arguments. The comments on such posts also show how simplistic nationalism is being used to justify reckless unregulated AI development.

Accelerating your life isn’t good for you

By now you might agree with me that there are some weird people out there, sometimes with masses of power, and a reckless agenda. But there is a broader ideology, of which most of us are a part, that is worthy of some rethinking. When a new technology appears, it is normal to be impressed by the new capacities it gives us and to assume it will unlock more free time in our lives. I once thought that. However, research on the dissemination of technology in society tells a different story. Consider the washing machine, which was thought to liberate women, in particular, from hours of domestic labour. Initially, it began to do just that, but then expectations changed, so we now wash clothes far more frequently than a century ago. Some of the time saved was consumed by doing more laundry, some by earning the money to buy and run the machine, and some by the changing need for homeworkers to be active in the job market. Another example of lost expectations is the introduction of email. Initially, it seemed like a fast substitute for writing and sending letters. Then it vastly expanded written communication, so that inboxes are perpetually full and every moment saved from letter writing has been colonised by new demands. Just as writing this, I suddenly remembered the peace of my undergraduate days before emails. And I broke into “oh I believe in Yesterday…”

But nostalgia isn’t analysis. So, let’s look more closely at why this process of lost expectations is typical. The researchers on this topic conclude that it is not inherent in a technology, such as a washing machine, that social norms naturally change to use it to do much more of an activity, or that any time saved is then deployed on non-leisurely activities. Rather, an economic system that demands constant growth and productivity, takes advantage of new efficiencies to generate new demands on us. The social commentator Brett Scott explains this well in a short video. He echoes the work of sociologists, such as Judy Wajcman and Hartmut Rosa, who argue that technological innovations did not deliver lots of free time because they are embedded within a capitalist logic of unending escalation, rather than serving human freedom. This embeddedness within economic systems is why new technologies that provided leaps in the efficient use of resources have not led to a decoupling of economic growth from resource consumption. One institution in this process are the stock markets, where traded companies are assessed against each other for their future returns on investment. A deeper causal process is the issuing of the money supply by private banks, as debt, with interest. That means additional money is required for servicing existing debts, which comes from new loans, which are only issued when there is new economic activity. Understanding these dynamics is quite a chore, and I recommend Chapter 2 in my book for further explanation. Put simply, the expansionist economic system produces a society that must continuously accelerate its activities. If you feel like life is speeding up, then that is because it is designed that way. And if you also notice that the destruction of planet Earth is speeding up, then please know that is because it is also designed that way.

My personal experience with eating (yep, the simple act of eating) illustrates how deeply these economic systems shape our inner worlds. I tend to finish my meals faster than my dining companions. Over the years, I have tried to slow down, but I soon forget, and go back to eating in a hurry. Eventually, I realised I developed this habit because I had wanted to get back to more productive activity – such as my work, domestic chores, or self-improvement. So, I had a deep compulsion toward ceaseless productivity. Then I noticed my cat would only eat rapidly if another cat was around and might take some of his meal. Could my own compulsion to productivity relate to a similar sense of scarcity and competition? Unlike my brother, I’ve never had my lunch eaten by a cat, but a constant state of vigilance could have manifested in me as my habit of rapid eating.

With these ‘hunches’ on my inner mess, I looked up the psychological research. I found that anxiety correlates with over-eating. And as eating rapidly means one has less time for a satiated feeling to help one stop, so rapid eating is related to over-eating. Correlations have also been observed between worse mental health and rapid eating, with evidence the influence is in both directions. Moreover, rapid eating, with limited chewing, doesn’t support one’s health. Then I found that rapid eating is subtly encouraged by social pressures, with ‘fast food’ culture being an obvious expression of that. I was reading all about this research while in a café. I was there as I had decided not to cook, so I could focus on finishing a first draft of this essay. All that healthy organic veg was in the fridge, neglected as I focused on being productive. Feeling a bit small, I remembered that at least awareness is the first step towards change. But it was then that I noticed I had cleared my plate, without being aware of my speed eating, as I’d been so busy thinking about social acceleration. Clearly, it’ll take some time for me to liberate myself from this bad habit.

The word ‘impatience’ seems relevant here. It is something that US Big Tech has promoted amongst so many of us. They have focused on how to get us addicted to our screens, so that they collect more data and show us more adverts.  The habit of constant scrolling and watching short videos has been rotting our capabilities for proper thought. Before that, it was normal to sit with information, compare it to other information, and reflect on our stories of the world, before deciding whether or not to do anything about it. That process is where the possibility exists for formulating intentional action. Instead, with social media, we react and move to the next content, wrongly assuming that we have been better informed and have actually acted on the information via a simple like, comment, share, or subscribe.

Modern psychology tells us a lot about the benefits of mindfulness and escaping automatic patterns. There is also ancient insight, spanning millennia and tradition, that it is deeply helpful to wilfully slow down our process of cognition, choice, and action. The most well-known teaching on that is from Buddhism, which focuses on the cultivation of our ability to witness sensations, thoughts, and emotions, so that we can perceive and choose from a calmer state of mind, which is more curious and compassionate. Similar teachings are found in Hinduism, where the sage Patanjali advised in Yoga Sutra 1.2 on how we can stop the habitual reactions in our minds. Taoism puts the slowing down of our thinking and striving at the centre of its teachings. Its concept of wu-wei invites a general non-forcing towards life. It also teaches that the ultimate source and flow of life can’t be fully known through those concepts, words, and stories, with which we divide it. Therefore, stillness and silence are regarded as a way for us to make room for the ultimate reality, or source, to be felt directly.

Although more widely regarded as systems of belief than intentional calming, both Christianity and Islam include teachings on the moral virtue of not rushing or being driven to act by momentary emotions. Traditionally regarded as being closer to a mystic experience of Jesus Christ, the book of James (1:19) reports him saying “let every person be quick to hear, slow to speak, slow to anger.” In Hadith 25, Prophet Mohammed is reported to tell a companion: “you possess two qualities which are beloved to Allah: calm and lack of haste.” With all these religious teachings in mind, we can regard the agendas and effects of the tech oligarchs as an empowered evil (the opposite of the strange claims of Peter Theil that we covered earlier).

Looking back on moments when I have been unkind or unwise, the one common factor has been that I’ve felt rushed and overwhelmed. In my personal life, that rush meant I responded from the wounded part of myself. In my professional life, rushing my work meant I did not take time to assess the full implications of some of my communications (e.g. emails and calls with Jeffrey Epstein). The research on when people don’t live up to their espoused values, and their normal ethical behaviour, due to rushing or being hurried, points to my own experience being common. Personal experience, modern psychology and religious teachings are all pointing to a clear conclusion: social acceleration is harmful for ourselves and all our relations. That’s why, on this issue, I am comfortable being one of those theorists who claims to know your “real interests” … that the truly free you wants to be allowed to slow down. Only manipulated, hurt, or traumatised, people feel a need to think and act ever faster. That’s why I am a decelerationist, and you are too.

If that is so, then I guess you aren’t such a fan of capitalism either, even if you don’t feel comfortable talking about that in public. To avoid any doubt, let’s recap. The two examples I gave, of rushed eating and online scrolling, can be traced back to the dynamics and influences of capitalism. It is that expansionist economic system which shaped the productivist ideologies and sense of scarcity that then encouraged my habit of rapid eating. The demands of shareholders are what propelled the Big Tech firms to devise ways to get us constantly online, rather than giving us tools to experience more time offline. I could also explain my moments of less-than-perfect behaviour in personal and professional life as an outcome of the pressures from capitalist dynamics. But that would sound like making excuses, so I’ll just leave it there…

I don’t want to make you feel guilty, but the general acceleration of our lives is why most of us have valued convenience above living our values or protecting ourselves. Facebook, Gmail, Instagram, Twitter/X, LinkedIN, WhatsApp and Microsoft software … all of these services have been the quickest and easiest ways to connect. Because of the way they are owned, directed, and geopolitically allied, our prioritising of convenience has enabled the construction of a global ‘technofeudalism’, where our societies are being damaged by the reckless developments and perverted ideologies of oligarchs.

Implications for social action

The acceleration of capital accumulation is why more of us are losing our original wealth of clean air, some nature nearby, a patch of land nearby with some time to grow our own, and some spaciousness in life to contemplate it all. But it doesn’t have to be this way. “Imagine days divine, no longer in a race with time. Every day we wake up is a day to shine.” Those are lines from the musician Common, rapping on his latest album. He is one of the actors in the sci-fi series that I mentioned earlier, Silo. His line resonated with me, as one of our freedoms to reclaim is from the ideology of progress. In my book chapter on that, I explain how that ideology hampers us from being honest about the tragic situation that humanity has entered, and from seeing the lies that technology will save us from further mess.

Whenever I attend a gathering of economically-advantaged professionals discussing environmental and social problems, I hear a version of the ideology of progress and lack of attention to how to slow the acceleration of society due to economic systems. The latest example was the ‘Global Tipping Points’ conference in Malaysia. The conversations were about replicating, scaling, and speeding up examples of positive activities, not how to slow down the capitalist juggernaut of destruction and oppression. Such a focus requires an amnesia about what has been tried, and what has failed, over the past decades. But it also rehearses progressivist ideology, where we are invited to focus on what’s new and how to do more of that. The scholarly field of ‘degrowth’ gets closer to abandoning the mental straightjacket of progressivism, but often avoids the need to change the economic and monetary drivers of acceleration and expansion. Within that field, some people are noticing an irony, or incoherence, in their work. Author Marcos Rupérez Cerqueda explains: “Many degrowth advocates, myself included, live at the pace of the civilization we want to slow down: flights to conferences, careers that demand more output, a constant rush to tell everyone we need to slow down.”

The concept of ‘slowing down’ does sometimes appear amongst environmental activists and professionals. The Buddhist community Plum Village has been encouraging climate activists and professionals to do just that, as an opportunity for seeing with new eyes, and reassessment, not only for more moments of calm. Separately, Nigerian philosopher Bayo Akomolafe’s statement that “the times are urgent, we must slow down,” is increasingly quoted amongst environmentalists. To take that sentiment to heart means the inner work of slowing down and observing our habits and aversions, so we allow our perception of reality to change us. It can also imply the outer work, of identifying social acceleration, and its economic drivers, as a fundamental challenge.  However, when calls to ‘slow down’ are understood merely as a critique of the validity of messages of urgency and calamity from scientists, activists and professionals, then that is a confusion. We don’t need climate activists to remove the urgency in their rhetoric, but hope that they find the time to deepen their understanding of the complex dynamics of climate and the deeper monetary drivers of ecological destruction, as two reasons why humanity has not been slowing climate chaos.

This broader understanding of the importance of slowing down, and the unavoidable barrier of systems which demand we speed up, is why I think the term decelerationism could be useful. Other people with concern over the centralising power of capitalism and/or authoritarianism have, instead, chosen to accommodate the idea that to accelerate is good. For instance, with d/acc, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin is supporting what he considers are technologies against authoritarian control. With re/acc, author Benjamin Life is promoting the development of technologies which enable more community-owned resourcing, communication, and exchange. Although the projects they champion are often good ones, by using the term accelerationism, the risk is that people will overlook deeper critiques of accelerationism, and the importance of a general philosophy of slowing down technology, capital, and society, along with our personal lives and habitual thinking.

Is this just intellectual pontification? Clearly, having written this essay, I don’t think so. Crucially, these ideas are relevant to help passionate activists not lose their way and get used by powerful interests. I am referring here to another form of collapse accelerationism, found amongst grassroots activists. This is believed by some people who become so annoyed that they sometimes smash things up. I met some of them during the anti-globalisation protests in Genoa in 2001, where they were called the ‘black bloc’. On the streets, during a riot, a couple of them told me that burning a bank, fighting a cop, and triggering police brutality on peaceful protestors, were all part of a tactic for radicalising society. Historical evidence of social struggles, plus evidence of what happened in Genoa that week, proves the opposite is the case. That’s because groups within the state, or powerful private networks, insert undercover ‘agent provocateurs’, who then trigger violence to enable both public disgust and state repression of anyone expressing critical views, even if peacefully. This is important to keep in mind, because as societies become more unequal and less affordable, more divided and less aspirational, there will be more social unrest. That is why the riots of 2026 have come as no surprise to many sociologists. Nor does the existence of the ‘black bloc’ within them, and the video evidence of hooded men moving around alongside police during the riots in France. In most cases the street violence will be used to generate public support for, and justify, more divisive and authoritarian politics, just as it has done throughout history.

Recognising the temptation towards performative violence is relevant to our situation today. Environmental activists are feeling bereft at the lack of change, are dreading what is unfolding with climate chaos, while also suffering the consequences of the state repression of their non-violent tactics of awareness raising. In that context, some commentators are arguing for environmental movements to abandon a commitment to non-violence. Looking at the book of one of the main proponents of this view, I immediately saw reckless, logical fallacies. Academic Andreas Malm makes his case for reconsidering the principle of non-violence by listing all the non-violent strategies and tactics that failed. But the fact they haven’t produced massive social change towards sustainability and justice does not mean that violent tactics will achieve that. The examples in his book on how to achieve change through violent action are few and irrelevant for people in contexts of advanced societies. They also overlook the one area where destruction of property has a history of working — industrial sabotage by employees. For instance, if an employee of an oil company is also a clandestine activist, no one needs to blow up a pipeline — the employee can simply order the wrong one. If a movement imagines itself as engaged in performative outsider-only tactics, then it is not a serious movement. Sadly, many people involved in environmental activism are members of the middle classes who are expressing their values and identity rather than focusing on what can help drive change.

Some people have argued that advocating for non-violence is only possible from a position of privilege — that is, from a place where one is not being violently oppressed. However, this assumption implies that speaking from privilege automatically makes your view incorrect, regardless of what you are saying or what the implications might be for both privileged and non-privileged people. That line of thinking can also lead to an illogical conclusion: that simply by recognizing one’s own privilege — or identifying the privilege of others you disagree with — one’s own position automatically gains merit. Instead, we can recognise that many of the most effective non-violent movements — from Gandhi in India to the U.S. civil rights movement to Solidarity in Poland — were led by oppressed people, not privileged outsiders. So, the premise that non-violence is only advocated from privilege is empirically false. I make this point here, as my past arguments against agnosticism on violent tactics within environmentalism were criticised by some on the basis of my privilege. Today the arguments are worth repeating, as governments in many countries are gearing up to be able to use individual instances of violence as excuses for widespread ideological oppression. Therefore, anyone encouraging activist violence is doing the bidding, knowingly or not, of the emerging fascist agenda to control populations during societal disruption and collapse.

A louder no and a greater yes

You may agree with my arguments, but still feel angry, and want to give that some expression. Me too. So, let’s not hold back in calling the accelerationists cowardly ignorant malevolent scum, whose billionaire adherents should be prosecuted, fined and jailed for their attempts to disrupt societies around the world. But let’s also be bigger than that. Let’s acknowledge they may have made some mistakes in a rather stressful time for us all, and could have an awakening one day to become useful allies in the turbulent times ahead. Let’s also get back to becoming the best we can be according to our own truth.

What might that involve? Well, there is a lot I have heard people doing because of their awareness of metacrisis and collapse. I recently met Finn Harries, who was a famous YouTuber before my Deep Adaptation paper woke him up to the urgency of the climate crisis. That started him on a journey that now sees him running a regenerative farm and promoting such approaches through his new podcast (please see our conversation). Also, recently I met Kin Thao from Vietnam, who is blending interfaith understanding with international cooperation on promoting ecovillages and eco-communities across Asia (you could see our conversation as well). Last month I received an email from a friend saying the founder of Biggar Market Garden in Scotland had started the initiative after reading my Deep Adaptation paper years ago. We don’t hear much about what has become a globally dispersed movement of collapse preparedness, as both the mainstream media and algorithms do the ideological work of elites to keep us blaming outgroups and believing false hopes. It is why people like you, my dear reader, could help by sharing writing like this essay with some individuals you know (avoiding the social media black hole that exists for truly radical content).

I mention those examples not just to illustrate what’s happening, but to some offer some inspiration. Other commentators on this situation have said that we need a clear narrative to challenge the accelerationists. Naomi Klein advises countering “their apocalyptic narratives with a far better story about how to survive the hard times ahead without leaving anyone behind. A story capable of draining end times fascism of its gothic power and galvanizing a movement ready to put it all on the line for our collective survival.” Many people who have the privilege to write and talk about these things advocate for an alternative narrative that is neither collapse-accepting nor apocalyptic. They often imply that people with relative privilege, such as you and me, do not need to face a drastic decline in our living standards. However, an alternative narrative to that of the accelerationists will need to be more honest and humble than that.

First, the narrative needs to accept what science is indicating, economics is forcing, and politics is spoiling. Already modern industrial societies are in the early stages of a process of collapse. The data shows that negative trajectories are being observed in countries around the world, pointing to fractures in the underlying foundations of energy, resources, biodiversity, food, climate and political-economic legitimacy. People are experiencing that as extreme price rises, rising debt, thwarted life expectations, fracturing communities, as well as physical and mental difficulties. An honest narrative will not be one that gaslights people about their own experiences and the science on the predicament faced.

Second, the alternative narrative to accelerationism needs to include the correct diagnosis of why the current predicament has emerged. It must explain how our difficulties are the result of an economic and monetary system, and that system is why there is such concentration of wealth and the power of mass manipulation, which now makes the derangement of elites a public risk. Anyone who argues that our response to tech accelerationism, or ‘end times fascism’ should be some more taxes, regulations on technology, and a nice new story of the future, would be misunderstanding the dynamics that brought us to this point. They would also be overlooking the evidenced failure after many decades of that kind of reformism.

Third, as we are a world of 8 billion people, it is both silly and unethical to attempt to be prescriptive for how people around the world can respond to the predicament. I say unethical, as I recognise the dignity and sovereignty of people to assess and decide for themselves in their contexts. This inspires my anti-imperialism and eco-libertarianism. By anti-imperialist, I mean that I oppose the imposition of political, economic or cultural models by powerful states and institutions upon less powerful peoples for the maintenance of that power (even if people think they aren’t doing that). By eco-libertarian, I mean that I favour self-determination, outside of the manipulations and coercions from modern capitalism, while recognising that we must collectively choose to restrain behaviours within ecological realities (see more on these definitions here). These principles have made me wary of general recommendations for others to adopt, across radically different cultural, political and material circumstances. Instead, my approach has been to support people’s own exploration of what’s important to them. Since 2018, I have offered the Deep Adaptation framework for personal and collective reflection. Now that many people are thinking about how to prepare for disruption and collapse, I developed a menu of positive action areas to consider (check out ‘Rainbow Prepping’). In all this work, I am encouraging a diversity of efforts to slow and soften collapse, to learn from it and seed new ways of life, without attachment to outcome. In that sense, we can all support a greater Yes to many responses, after a louder No to the latest extremes of imperialist power.

I hope I have won you over to the idea that you are a decelerationist too. As sane, aware, and kind people, we want to slow the development of technologies that require masses of the world’s finite resources, while adding to existential risks, so that we in civil society have the opportunity to shape the direction of technological development. We are also decelerationists because we want to slow the destruction of the natural world, without neglecting or accelerating human suffering. And we are decelerationists because we want the opportunity to slow things down in our own lives, as we seek to be our best selves.

I find it ironic that one Big Tech company knows it can benefit from slowing things down. Apple TV decided to release the final season of Silo nine months after Season 3, despite filming the season at the same time. That means ‘word of mouth’ and social commentary can spread and build a new audience ahead of the final series. It also means some fans can ‘binge watch’ the earlier series just before the last one begins. But that’s just a dynamic for a TV series. If we want to try to slow down tech, slow down our lives, slow down destruction, we will need to act. Although it would be nice to get some ‘social’ media engagement with these ideas, I recognise the irony of feeding the beast. So here are five suggestions:

  • Explore and plan how to reduce your reliance on most of US Big Tech (see the information and interaction sovereignty section of Rainbow Prepping)
  • Send this essay to one of the social commentators you follow with a request they give more attention to the systemic economic drivers behind accelerating destruction and unrestrained technology.
  • Send this essay to the leader of any spiritual, religious, cultural, or educational group, which you are part of, with a covering letter about your concerns, expressing the view it is time to speak out against the strange ideas being promoted by tech oligarchs and those cultural leaders and political leaders whom they fund.
  • Write to your political representative, and any relevant official in a trade union or professional association you are part of, with a covering letter about your concerns, and request for a change in reliance on US Big Tech services.
  • Eat a meal more slowly than normal and talk to someone about why you are doing that (if you already eat slowly, just enjoy your freedom with that). OK, this action is more of a ‘note to self’!

I look forward to hearing your ideas, if you are part of the Metacrisis Initiative (information to join the next salon follows below). The Deep Adaptation and Metacrisis Leadership group on LinkedIn is another space where you can share your thoughts on this essay.

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This is a reader-supported human, doing the thinking, talking and then writing. I used DeepSeek to check some ideas and find some sources, but the drafting of text is all my own (sorry if it was a bit clunky in places). It takes a while to put together essays like this, where I try to integrate what I know from my past in interdisciplinary academia, analysis of my own life, listening to others, reading social commentary, and choosing what’s most relevant to share with people who know me as a thinker and educator on positive responses to metacrisis and collapse. I aim for another 100 members of the Metacrisis Initiative to ensure I can keep allocating my time to this kind of analysis on related topics. As a member you also have the opportunity of attending salons and participating in the peer mentoring groups. In any case, you help to keep it all going. It’s 8 bucks a month, or 80 a year. Join us?

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During the next Metacrisis Salon, we will discuss how we can usefully slow down our lives as well as those within our fields of influence — where ‘usefully’ means less damage to ourselves, others, and nature. The background reading for the salon is this essay.

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It’s beginning to look like proper forests are natural aircon systems, and realising that could be a positive tipping point. Here’s how. 

people sitting on grass in city

In our age of spiralling climate concern, yet no sign of positive impact on observed climate heating, one barrier to effective action is that society does not currently perceive forests as climate infrastructure.

Urban planners already know they need reservoirs and a drainage system for water, an electricity grid for power, roads for transportation and parks for recreation. Many city planners have come to know of the benefit of having more trees for shade within urban areas, and to suck some pollutants out of the air. Currently, however, they don’t realise that cities can benefit from being adjacent to large forests, to benefit from their cloud-seeding and wind-generating effects. Discovering that a large forest can be important climate-modulating infrastructure, which could make hot cities more bearable, could transform the levels of support and finance for forest protection and regrowth. 

Currently, most advocacy and policy on forest conservation operates within one of four concerns, or frames: first there are livelihoods, landscape preservation and tourism; second, there is watershed protection, third there is biodiversity protection; and fourth, more recently, carbon sequestration. All are important, but have typically been sidelined when big business wants to mine the land, farm massively, or expand a city. In our era of climate disturbance, those four reasons for forest conservation don’t generate the same political and psychological urgency as recognising the following truth: forests are part of the natural climate infrastructure that keeps regions cool enough to be habitable.

There is a substantial and growing scientific basis for that view. Forests alter evapotranspiration, atmospheric moisture, cloud formation, surface energy fluxes and rainfall. Key is the way that pollen and bacteria from large forests seed clouds, both above them, and far beyond, thereby adding to the Earth’s reflectivity. Another mechanism is called the biotic pump, where large forests can draw in air from oceans and send the moisture and heat into the atmosphere, also creating clouds. 

Those processes combined seem to explain why, in tropical regions, deforestation has substantially disrupted regional rainfall and increased average and extreme temperatures.  One example is Borneo, where prior to 2018, researchers “found a strong island-wide relationship between forest loss and increases in daily temperature and reductions in daily precipitation.” The cascading effects of deforestation in Borneo on more recent droughts and fires is clear, with a devastating loss of wild habitat and dangerous transboundary pollution.

Recent climate research is increasingly emphasizing these ‘biohydrological’ processes, rather than treating forests simply as carbon stores. Worryingly, and unacceptably, this aspect of anthropogenic climate change continues to be marginalised through a narrow focus on atmospheric carbon. If this is new to you, please see my previous two essays on the matter (on the basics, and on some implications). I also recommend the work of Dr Anastassia Makarieva. 

As humanity is now a predominantly city-dwelling species, a key question within a heating world is not just whether some more tree-lined streets might help. It is whether some city-adjacent large natural forests could act as local and regional aircon systems. On this matter, there are various studies of cities in the tropics which indicate the cooling effects of forests, including studies which explain the specific processes involved in that, such as the generating of local winds. However, this subject has not yet received sufficient attention to document the process in policy-shaping detail. What would help is a comparative study of cities to identify differences in temperature averages and extremes in warm seasons. When adjusting for longitude, altitude, local typography, water body proximity, and urban size, such a study could provide valuable insight into the necessary size, proximity and maturity of a natural forest for it to seed clouds, drive winds, and transport heat. It is crucial work, and yet marginal to the mainstream climate agenda, and thus relatively underfunded.

Imagine if people and policy makers realised that large natural forests can be key for moderating excessive heat in their region? There could be a cascade of commitment to forest conservation around the world, involving city leadership, not just the national government departments focused on environment and land use. More people, in all walks of life, would begin to understand healthy ecosystems as key to maintaining their urban existence. 

Imagine if a hot tropical city, such as Kuala Lumpur, decided to experiment with a reforestation project in its hinterland, and assess the results over the next 20 years? Currently, much of the land to the west of the city is palm plantation, which does not deliver any of the cloud-seeding effects of a mature natural forest. Yet there are patches of official forest reserves, which could be connected, assisted and expanded. Such a project would either deliver, and confirm, the benefits of natural cloud seeding, or, if not, it would nevertheless become a useful resource, a beautiful one, along with its intrinsic worth. 

Imagine if more government officials became more aware of this role for forests. Regional and national planning processes could include large natural forests as key climate cooling infrastructure. As such, large natural forests could be regarded as being a far more valuable foundational asset than current ecosystem service assessments recognise. Such a realisation could re-invigorate cross border collaboration, including financial support, for conserving and restoring large forests in critical areas like Borneo. 

But there is a barrier to this potential being unleashed. It is a barrier found within the studies, reports, agendas and even minds of people working hard on climate change. It is that the climate-cooling value of large forests is conceptually invisible because “climate action” was reduced to greenhouse-gases. That leads to another barrier for massive forest conservation efforts: neither climate policy nor land use policy recognises the importance of forest-based climate modulation.

The absence of care for the climatic role of large forests doesn’t aid the smartness of policies on other issues, like food security. In some countries, including Indonesia, forests are being cleared to enable more agriculture. This is explained as necessary to combat increasing food insecurity in the face of climate change. However, forest clearance typically increases temperatures regionally, damaging existing agriculture, and thus worsening food insecurity.

Recognising the role of forests in climate modulation would also make it more difficult to justify forest clearance for mining the metals for an ‘energy transition’. That wouldn’t necessarily stop decisions which are, in any case, driven by profit and greed. However, at least it would remove the false fig leaf of environmental ‘concern’. 

The question before us is therefore how to overcome the barrier within climatology, and related climate policy, to unleash a ‘positive social tipping point’ in forest conservation for climate cooling. 

Here is where it is key to note that the recent years of global temperature changes are inexplicable according to past consensus in climatology. That presents a window of opportunity for a reassessment of the comprehensiveness of our understanding of anthropogenic climate change. In that context, ignoring a more pan-ecological approach to climate dynamics, including ‘biohydrological’ cycles, is no longer tenable. Moreover, dismissing anything other than a carbon-only understanding as giving space to resistance from fossil fuel interests, would be to allow those interests to have polluted the clarity of scientific assessment and its implications.

The climatologists who interface with other fields of science, such as the Earth Systems specialists, could be an influential node between different fields of expertise to spread awareness of this matter. Therefore, if a few senior leaders, key reports, and conferences, in the field of Earth Systems sciences, all communicated this understanding that large forests can act as natural aircon systems, it could bring the environmental professions to a threshold of awareness. 

One way forward is to create forest-climate demonstration and observation regions. In addition to major forest restoration activities, they would take measurements that explore connections between forest conditions and the heat, moisture, rainfall and water security in the region. They could also measure other potential beneficial impacts on air quality and on stable water flows. That would make the climate modulating functions of forests measurable, locally visible, and institutionally legible. If that demonstrated local climatic benefits, it would increase public demand and institutional investment. That would mean forest protection could move from being perceived as an environmental preference to being understood as a necessary form of climate infrastructure provision. As a result, forest protection efforts would start reproducing themselves socially in many locations around the world.

In an era of rapid climate change that is now damaging lives, not just landscapes, there is clear reason for a global wave of safe and nature-friendly experiments in natural climate modulation and adaptation. City leaders should not wait years for more research to confirm the specifics of size, proximity and maturity of a forest to achieve regional climate cooling effects. Instead, a ‘post-normal‘ approach to science is the wise one when stakes are high and delaying decisions has potentially massive and irreversible implications. It is an approach to climate science and policy that I outlined with Dr Rupert Read, in Chapter 1 of the book Deep Adaptation: Navigating the realities of climate chaos.

Once I became aware that large healthy forests can be key to reducing the increases in unpleasant and dangerous heat in some cities, while also seeding clouds regionally, I wanted to encourage more discussion about it. When I realised the potential power of city leaders in recognising that large forests can be essential climate infrastructure, I saw the need for this idea to be heard within the mainstream policy pow wows on climate change. That’s why I agreed for the co-founder of the Climate Cooling Initiative to pull me out of my rural life and efforts on deep adaptation, to return to the noise of big city conferencing. 

So I’m off to Kuala Lumpur to present at the Global Tipping Points conference. It’s the first time I’ve attended a climate conference since 2022 in Egypt, where Dr Ye Tao and I warned of accelerating climate change and the coming heat spike from reduced cloud cover. I’m hoping that some people attending our workshop will already know our premise, or be open to it, and come up with other, perhaps better, ideas for how to remove barriers to massive distributed action on natural climate cooling. I’ll let you know what happens, on jembendell.com. 

One way to share your views and efforts on this topic is within the Deep Adaptation and Metacrisis Leadership group on LinkedIn. It is moderated by the Metacrisis Initiative.

What We Grieve

sculpture of an angel

We grieve for when hot weather was something to fully enjoy, not carrying the dread of accelerating environmental change.

We grieve for the time when talking about the weather was our way to connect with one another, not to trigger anxieties, or invite a political debate.

We grieve for when we could enjoy a beautiful landscape and not wonder about the suffering and loss of its wildlife.

We grieve for the time when allergies, diabetes, autoimmune diseases, and cancers, were unusual conditions and we would be unlucky to be affected by them.

We grieve for when we didn’t know that microplastics and toxic chemicals are circulating in our blood, accelerating our aging and foretelling of future illness, as well as that of future generations.

We grieve for when humanity was small enough for this Planet Earth to tolerate the financiers’ demand for exponential growth.

We grieve our loss of faith in sacrificial action and mass mobilisation as a way of triggering politicians and society to change in significant and lasting ways.

We grieve the assumption that most of our friends, relatives, and neighbours would eventually recognise the seriousness of what we see and organise together at scale.

We grieve our own wasted years on strategies for change that did not work, and the solace we once found in the idea that small changes would, in time, become sufficient.

We grieve our past deference to those more conservative scientists and experts and the assumption that their interpretations and recommendations on climate change would eventually lead to an adequate response.

We grieve the lost hope that environmental politics could succeed within established ways of thinking about problems and pathways to change.

We grieve for when young and principled activists felt they had peaceful pathways to social change, rather than being attracted to violent ideation that would, in any case, ultimately serve repressive forces in society.

We grieve the deadening of passions for truth, care, and change, amongst many professionals, as their work degrades into a performance for income and status.

We grieve the possibility of a materially better future that we once assumed was within reach.

We grieve for when we thought pop stars were imaginative when they sang about an “emergency on planet earth” or of “praying for time.”

We grieve for when falling in love could lead to wanting children without also confronting fears about the kind of world into which they are being born.

We grieve that we can no longer assume that we will live longer than our parents, and our children longer than us – with the opposite of that even becoming likely.

We grieve for the time when having a job, working hard, and behaving responsibly, seemed sufficient to build a decent life.

We grieve for when our communities had enough spare capacity and time so people could help one another without becoming indebted, overworked, or exhausted.

We grieve for the time when young people did not think they had to leave the country, become digital nomads, dabble in crypto, or await a windfall from a dying relative, simply to have a chance of an economically viable future.

We grieve for the loss of national sovereignty to global technology companies, global financial institutions, global media corporations, and the institutions that advance the agendas of global corporations in general.

We grieve for the time when our hard-earned savings were not being managed by algorithms that encourage the most destructive business activities.

We grieve that it is no longer normal for people to take their time to read and reflect, so that they can weigh up ideas and formulate their intentions, rather than impatiently reacting to stimulus on a screen.

We grieve for the time when large business owners and executives were just rich people with boring jobs, rather than people who steer public conversations, ideologies and politics in their commercial favour, or according to their psychoses.

We grieve the decline of a public sphere in which questions of truth, rights, and fairness, could be discussed with nuance, curiosity, and a genuine willingness to learn.

We grieve the replacement of that curiosity with desires for righteousness—a culture of demonstrating correctness rather than exploring uncertainty, complexity, and the possibility of changing our minds.

We grieve for the time when attention-seeking halfwits, whose ideas momentarily align with the schemes of elites to distract everyone, did not dominate our feeds and conversations.

We grieve for the time when politicians promising us a better tomorrow for our country if we voted for them had any credibility whatsoever.

We grieve for the time when we could regard international law and international organisations, however distant and ineffective, as at least providing some kind of check on the aggressive use of power and the worst forms of crime against humanity.

We grieve for the time when we believed that the war criminals who started the Iraq War on the basis of lies would end up in jail, rather than running major foundations or presenting leading podcasts.

We grieve for the time when, despite their ridiculous cost and dangerousness, we had some confidence that the existence of nuclear arsenals would sober up the leaders of the great powers, to make full-scale war unlikely.

We grieve the loss of the assumption that, despite its drawbacks, having the USA as the world’s dominant superpower is better than the alternatives.

We grieve the loss of our remaining hope that our government would become accountable for their actions, responsive to citizens, and capable of leading responses to collective challenges.

We grieve for the loss of the enthusiasm that the internet would connect humanity so that we would have greater empathy and understanding, and thereby achieve more rights, wellbeing and opportunities for all.

We grieve for the time when we thought the revelations by Edward Snowden would curb the emergence of a surveillance society, where our privacy is compromised and our emotions are targeted for manipulation.

We grieve for the time when we could use the software services of companies without wondering whether that makes us complicit in war crimes that are enabled by those same companies.

We grieve for how a concern for people who are economically disadvantaged partly because of their identity, was then developed into a pretentious distraction from true struggles for economic fairness, which then triggered identity-related backlashes, while economic unfairness and inequality intensified to the worst levels ever.

We grieve for the time when anyone who said they were anti-racist actually meant it, rather than using claims to be anti-racism to show off or to weaponise it against someone.

We grieve as we discover how people we love can succumb to distraction, misinformation and grievance politics—to ideas that give their anxiety somewhere to go rather than helping them understand the deeper issues and the wholesome ways to adapt.

We grieve our lost closeness to some friends and relatives, as our common personal anxiety about wider changes and perceived threats has generated aggravated disagreements in our private lives.

We grieve the loss of many elders from meaningful community life, as social isolation leaves them increasingly vulnerable to the grievance politics that is communicated to them by powerful forces.

We grieve for the loss of the reverence we felt for a generation of elderly due to their fortitude through youthful suffering and their request that we never forget the costs of war.

We grieve that we can no longer be confident that medical professionals will never promote drugs to healthy people and children, without primary attention to personal safety, secondary attention to public health, and zero attention to profits or politics.

We grieve for the time when we thought it was utterly ridiculous to imagine that networks of paedophiles could exercise power behind the scenes at national and international levels.

We grieve that we can no longer dismiss as outlandish the theories that there was secret service facilitation of some of the perpetrators of massive tragedies, including 9/11.

We grieve our past assumption that it would be ludicrous to think that national or global elites have a ‘considered’ disregard, or even death wish, for some of humanity, including many of us.

We grieve for when we could think of our deceased loved ones and wish they were still alive to see our accomplishments and what is happening in the world.

We grieve for when anxiety and dread were not the background tone of our daily lives.

We grieve that we cannot make the old hopes normal again.

We grieve for when it did not require such effort or privilege to escape our forethoughts of grief.

We grieve for that time when we thought that incantations of our common grief, such as the fifty listed here, could help liberate people who imprison themselves in the routines of their executive positions.

Yes, we grieve and relinquish all of that: the loss of the future we thought we were working towards, the society we thought would recognise what is happening, the peoples we thought would remain capable of appreciating one another, and the political institutions we thought would eventually respond to reality.

And yes, we also wonder whether moving from anxiety into grief, for all that has been lost, and is being lost, in so many ways, can now open our hearts and minds to something different. Because we know that the final stage of grief is to re-focus on the living.

Written by Jem Bendell on September 11th, 2026.

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Discussing Collapse – with friends and colleagues, for a purpose

add with virtues

“Oh you’re looking a bit better today. Are you ready for your lunch?” The friendly carer had entered my father’s room with a bright bustle and spoke with high and energetic tones. Her phrasing and tone were what you might expect around someone recovering from surgery. But Dad wasn’t getting better. He was terminally ill, with weeks or months to live, depending on how fast the cancer would spread. Sitting in the corner of the room, I wondered what the carer might have meant beneath her words and manner. It’s a tough job, and perhaps more bearable if she maintains the appearance of working in a place of healing. Perhaps she actually thought Dad looked a bit better that day. Or perhaps she thought it is better for the patients to receive positive feedback that might improve their mood, and even their appetite. At the time my Dad grumbled slightly before a ‘knowing smile’ that might have meant: “not bad for a guy bedbound by bone cancer and looking forward to the next dose of morphine”. I wondered whether he was doing the emotional work of ‘keeping up appearances’ and avoiding an ‘unspeakable topic’, even in a nursing home — the topic of death. Soon after his terminal diagnosis, I had felt awkward discussing death with Dad, and it felt easier to leave him a book about the process of dying and how friends, relatives and others can behave as a loved one faces death. Later on, we talked more fully, in a way that felt like lifting a burden of silence and denial. That experience suggested a different quality of experience could be had in nursing homes if normalising the topic of dying and death would be part of how we showed care for the terminally ill. It also highlighted to me the benefits of talking about things which society has deemed taboo, or unspeakable. As you are reading my writing, you know that such topics have included environmental and societal collapse. That is why a new book on the topic is titled ‘unspeakable’. Its authors Richard Hil and Jean Renouf understand that as this taboo begins to be broken, we can benefit from clarifying for ourselves why we want to voice the unspeakable, and how to talk about it for positive outcomes. So I want to share with you how we have been approaching this in the peer mentoring of the Metacrisis Initiative, as the lessons can be applied elsewhere.

The philosopher and sociologist Michel Foucault showed that what a society permits to be said is bound up with power, so taboos are maintained, not natural. Some topics are rendered ‘unspeakable’ because speaking them threatens comfort, order, or hierarchical power. With that in mind, one could see a taboo around death in institutional settings as being enforced by others’ discomfort rather than the dying person’s need. That discomfort reflects a deeper aversion to death in a culture that has pushed many questions arising from the fact of our mortality to the side. A society of people more attentive to the fragility of life and therefore reverent to their own experience of life, might be a society with more unpredictable behaviours. As I’ve written before, many people who become ‘collapse aware’ begin to live more from their heart’s desires and feel more ‘wild’ about life. That, in itself, can seem a good reason for being ready to share our opinions on the matters of environmental destruction, metacrisis, and societal collapse. However, the first question we must ask ourselves when considering to speak the unspeakable is why – what are we trying to achieve for ourselves, the people we are talking to, and wider society. Only when that is clear can we move on confidently to questions about how to talk about this topic and with whom. Therefore, before presenting the container for discussions in the peer mentoring groups, I will share some reflections on the matter of our intention. 

Positive intentions for discussing collapse

There can be positive intentions for breaking social taboos, and speaking the unspeakable. As a taboo-breaker for some years, on the subject of societal collapse, I have come to recognise some negative ‘near neighbours’ or shadows to positive reasons for talking about it, as well as other taboo subjects. The first obviously positive reason to speak uncomfortable truths is to invite attention to reality. Only if we are prepared to discuss what might be true can we then reach greater understanding and find appropriate responses. The shadow to that could be wielding a truthful statement as a weapon, where “just being honest” is part of wanting to dominate or dismiss people. A second reason for breaking taboos can be to reduce the suffering of isolation that people feel in not having their situation and feelings validated. In contexts like nursing homes and hospices, it gives a terminally ill person the permission to accept their situation, with the potential for more connection, or even intimacy. The shadow to that would be if our prime interest is unburdening ourselves, not connection with someone we are in discussion with. A third benefit from speaking the unspeakable can be the enabling of mourning and repair. That’s because silence around any matter involving loss or damage can freeze the situation so that grief, accountability, learning and change cannot proceed. Perhaps the negative ‘near neighbour’ to that would be if we try to force a reckoning before those we are communicating with are ready. The fourth positive reason for breaking taboos that I know of is to try to protect people, especially when breaking taboos involves warnings of impending harm, so that people have the chance to prepare both individually and collectively. But because that desire to protect can involve our ego, it requires vigilance about a number of shadows. There can be a desire for expressing our courage, where we regard ourselves as the ones brave enough to say the unspeakable. There can also be a performance of profundity, where we wish to see ourselves as belonging to a group of more conscious or knowledgeable people. 

Whatever the topic, and depending on context, the same words can be an act of love, indifference, or cruelty. As many ancient wisdoms teach, intention and context are key. So rather than just thinking we are doing good by breaking taboos, whether that’s on death, or on capitalism, or on hidden psychological wounds, or on collapse, or on something else, we can check in on our intentions. We can ask the extent to which we are being other-directed, considering what the listener needs to hear. We can ask if we are being proportionate, with the amount, timing, and tone of our communications being suitable for the particular person and moment. And we can check whether we are accepting responsibility for potential consequences instead of hiding behind “it needed saying.”

These broad ideas on positive and negative reasons for breaking taboos are also useful to keep in mind when hearing the increasingly dramatic claims of commentators in broadcast and social media. A lot more people are on my screens claiming they are breaking taboos in telling me their new information, theory or views. I am also seeing a lot more pronouncements of impending doom than I did before. Perhaps that is just the algorithm targeting my own interests, but the people I speak with, and the opinion polls on the state of the world, all indicate societal collapse is a more widely discussed topic. That reflects something real. But whether the pundits are telling us that the threat is Artificial Intelligence, a political movement, a cultural shift, a foreign power, or an evil cabal, we can remain alert to whether they have our interests in mind. 

If you are discussing societal collapse with people, then I recommend taking a moment to reflect on why you are doing that  — both in general, and in the particular context of your audience (whether that is one person or a group, and written or verbal). Although we might not regard the topic of collapse as equivalent to giving a terminal diagnosis to our conversation partner or audience, it can be heard like that. Therefore, it can generate forms of anxiety associated with experiencing unsafety and remembering mortality. That potential response invites our caution. In my previous reflection on the emotional labour of “communicating collapse” in public, I explained that giving speeches and interviews involves special consideration of how we impact on others. However, discussions in small groups of friends, relatives and colleagues are far more normal occurrences in life. And those conversations can be powerful, even transformative, especially so when participating with that intention as part of an ongoing process. So let’s look at that a bit more. 

In the years after Deep Adaptation became known as an approach to our environmental situation, I gained some experience on how to host conversations on this emotionally challenging topic. In particular, there was a need to provide space and time for difficult emotions to surface, before moving into discussions about what to do in response. With my colleague at the Deep Adaptation Forum at the time, I co-wrote an academic paper on the methodology we developed, called ‘deep relating’. Since then I have come to see the potential of a more generic and generative framework for people to meet and support each other in these times of material decline, biophysical loss, social upheaval, and valid dread about the future. Therefore, I developed a framework for peer mentoring in the metacrisis, and have been piloting it with 8 groups over the past year. In the rest of this essay I will present the guidance we use for that peer mentoring. This guidance is suited for any type of group that meets for peer support, not just on the metacrisis. That’s because the guidance helps move participants in groups beyond the habits of mere information exchange. If it resonates with you, please bring it to any groups you are already part of. A fuller guide to the process will be released in 2027, after further refinements. If you want to create your own metacrisis peer mentoring group, outside of the framework of the Metacrisis Initiative, then I recommend you first participate in our peer mentoring to learn the process.

Principles and Guidance within the Peer Mentoring of the Metacrisis Initiative

In the Metacrisis Initiative, we gather to explore how to give and gain insight on living our lives more fully in the context of fracturing societies. The approach to peer mentoring is therefore guided by six working principles, which are outlined in an essay on why this approach breaks with traditional coaching methodologies.

1.  Beyond Individualism: we shift focus from individual self-actualisation to experiencing ourselves as a participant in collective reconnection and liberation.

2.  Contextual Awareness: we do not assume stability but actively support reflection and adaptation within volatile and uncertain conditions.

3.  Welcoming Emotions: grief, fear, and dread are not framed as obstacles but as understandable responses that can be sources of insight and solidarity.

4.  Critical Use of Frameworks: we maintain an ongoing awareness and critique of any frameworks used, preventing attachment to any single methodology.

5.  Acknowledging Perspective: we do not assume the neutrality of our peers, but recognise that the values and beliefs of all participants are part of the peer mentoring process.

6.  Democratising Support: we regard the ability to support others as something to be shared, so encourage participants to learn how to facilitate and bring practices learned in our peer mentoring to other groups.

We recognize the process of becoming our better selves in the current global context is not something we’ve got a blueprint for. Therefore our curiosity to learn from each other, no matter what our levels and types of experience, is key. That is also why we welcome a diversity of people within our groups, in terms of age, education and culture. We encourage each other to share our insights, strategies and philosophies as tools in our life, and as ways to relate to life, the world, and, perhaps, the divine. Nevertheless, we do not aim to persuade anyone. And though we aim to listen to everyone actively during our meetings, we don’t offer advice unless invited. To help all participants maintain that approach, the following four tips have proven to be helpful:

  1. We each take a ‘soft’ responsibility for the whole group process. That means each participant should know the guidance on how the group is meant to function and be ready to gently remind others, including the (rotating) chairperson, if/when some parts of the process get overlooked. Some basics include that we keep to topic and time, hear from everyone, and be mindful about consent. 
  2. We prefer to share from personal experience, not from a model, doctrine, or specific philosophy. Many frameworks can be very helpful, so we might share how a particular one has helped us. (I-statements can be helpful in keeping it personal.) If someone shares in a way that sounds like – “this is the truth”, or “this is what we all need to know”- we can invite them back to the personal, with a follow-up question, such as: “How does that work for you?” or “How do you use that in your life?”
  3. We don’t give advice unsolicited. However, as we are aiming to help each other, some strategies that work better than giving advice include asking a question, such as “how do you deal with that,” or telling a story that might be relevant to the other person’s situation.
  4. We can disagree gracefully. To hold space for differences is rare and very valuable. Instead of conforming to one way of thinking, and dismissing those who think differently, we appreciate different points of view as it challenges stuck ideas about a fluid reality. For people to feel safe to express, we agree to talk gently, respectfully and with care. This includes respecting the varying views on the nature of our predicament and the possibilities for positive action.*

Key for any group to be able to generate peer support is that there are some foundational principles and commitments amongst its participants. So, in the peer mentoring of the Metacrisis Initiative, we confirm that we recognise that our context is usefully described as either metacrisis or societal collapse. The list of participant commitments is outlined here.

As our peer mentoring involves everyone taking joint responsibility for the process, the role of chairperson rotates for each meeting. That also provides opportunities for people to develop their skills and experience in facilitating meetings. The organisers of each group help the volunteer chairperson prepare for their meeting, reminding them of some tips for when chairing, including the following:

  1. Decide in advance how you will invite people to speak, rather than waiting for people to choose when. Remind people they can pass on any round of sharing. At the end of a round, come back to anyone who passed to gently check if they now wish to share.
  2. Explain at the start how you will try to keep people to time. You might choose a hand gesture and/or use a timer and/or a device that makes a sound.
  3. In the sessions with open discussion, try to hear from everyone, avoid replying to each person’s contribution, don’t assume that common themes need identifying, and delay sharing your perspective until many voices have been heard. 
  4. Welcome it if a participant speaks up about the process. We all forget to do certain things, and the soft responsibility of every participant for the process means you can lean on them to point out if something isn’t being done as agreed or advised. 
  5. If someone arrives late, wait for an appropriate break in process to then acknowledge them and recap what has been done and what comes next.

In addition to these general tips, individual meetings can use specific methodologies. Those methodologies can be chosen by a chairperson for one meeting, or draw from the options provided by the Metacrisis Initiative, such as the ‘clarity groups’. The discussions occur within an understanding of the type of qualities or orientations we wish to cultivate in ourselves as we face disruption and collapse. I mapped that out in the RECKON framework, as a personal development agenda that helps us free ourselves from the habits of oppressive ideology. Participants can also draw upon relevant frameworks for responding to metacrisis and collapse, including the 6Rs of Deep Adaptation and the ‘Rainbow Prepping’ list of action areas. The latter is particularly suitable for self-assessment and goal setting, as we do in the peer mentoring groups.

Observing how the first cohort of groups progressed over six months, I have been impressed by the way people have recognised the benefit of a structure that enables a focus on peer support for changing our lives positively in response to metacrisis and collapse. I have also noticed that on rare occasions a chairperson is not that well prepared, or misunderstands an aspect of the process, having mutual trust and shared responsibility means that someone can step up and correct the process. 

If you have read this far, and aren’t already a peer mentor, please look at the relevant commitments required of participants, and consider joining the next cohort, starting in November. To do so, you need to be a paying subscriber to this website, and complete your mentoring registration request by October 14th 2026. If you are already a member, then the links for signing up, or being reassigned to a new group, follow below (please act on that this week). If you are a young professional (under 35), or from the ‘Global South’, or have limited means, please request free membership here. Otherwise, it is $8 a month.

*Three of these emerged out of a local satsang group which I co-founded in Ubud, and I am grateful to Vasudev for clarifying them.

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Communicating Collapse

talking scrabble letters on a wooden table

I don’t give many speeches or interviews on the topic of societal collapse. I find it tough. That’s because when speaking to audiences of mixed levels of awareness on social and environmental trends, I need to explain the latest data, convey the emotional weight of the conclusions, and provide some pointers on how to metabolise such feelings without either panic or aggressive dismissal. That process has never been a light one for me. First, I need to update myself on the latest data, in a way whether I synthesise and remember it well enough to be able to explain it. That’s no fun. Second, I need to allow the emotions to arise in me, as suppressing them might convey to people that this matter isn’t so important and upsetting. So that’s not much fun either. Third, some strong emotional reactions are normal, and present needs for follow-on engagement, across quite a spectrum. On the one hand, some people are deeply affected and request guidance. On the other hand, some people ‘shoot the messenger’ and frame me as problematic in some way. That can happen in small networks, or subsequently published ‘hit pieces’, which misrepresent my work and that of others who are ‘collapse aware’.  So what to do?

Recognising that ‘collapse communication’ comes with responsibilities, as well as taking an emotional toll on the communicator, is the reason why I participated over the years in various initiatives to support people to communicate kindly and wisely on this topic. As the troubles become more apparent, and new people talk about collapse, including some with great resources and reach to pitch their view of the world, now is not the time to be shy. If our intention is to slow and soften collapses, while creating possibilities for the future, without certainty, then we can try to learn how to communicate well and responsibly. That’s why ‘communicating collapse’ will be the topic of the next salon of the Metacrisis Initiative (sign up info follows at the end). 

This year I accepted invitations for a couple of interviews that would reach a wider audience than my existing following amongst the ‘collapse aware’. First, I was interviewed for a climate-engaged audience, on the podcast of the MEER initiative. It is promoting local initiatives at reflecting the sun’s rays, to achieve some local cooling. In the interview, I covered some of the claims in the 2018 Deep Adaptation paper that are confirmed by recent data or science, before explaining how scientists on climate could avoid new kinds of mistakes today. In particular, I emphasised the need to look beyond atmospheric carbon to natural cloud seeding processes for an understanding of recent heating. That’s a view with massive implications for environmental activism and policy, if only scientists could convey that wider – panecological – understanding of the biophysical drivers of the climate crisis. 

The next interview released on video was with Finn Harries, for his new podcast ‘The Seeds Will Grow’. Originally, Finn became well known with his twin brother as a teen youtuber, and then progressed into environmental communications. On the podcast he explains the impact that the Deep Adaptation paper had on him, which led to his focus on regenerative projects, including Juntos Farm. For such a specialist conversation, it has already received a lot of engagement, and the comments on the video are like a mini-forum of ideas (awaiting your own contribution!).

For three years, I hosted a guest every month to discuss aspects of our responses to societal collapse. The interviews remain an important resource for people new to this topic, or exploring new aspects of it. Guests included Joanna Macy, Charles Eisenstein, Gail Bradbrook and Vanessa Andreotti. I am considering hosting interviews again, and trialled that with Kin Thao, who is the network coordinator for the Oceanic and Asian region of the Global Ecovillage Network. She was in Indonesia as part of the networking and exchange of ideas that I helped to fund. If you are interested in how intentional communities, of any size or type, can be catalysts for change in an era of metacrisis and collapse, then I recommend the interview. It was the first time I’ve ever sung with an interviewee!

Rather than public advocacy or education, my main focus will remain the Metacrisis Initiative, where we help the ‘collapse aware’ to live purposefully. The deadline to join the second cohort of peer mentoring is in early October 2026. That means you need to be a member before then to be able to join a mentoring group from November. If you are a young professional (under 35), or from the ‘Global South’, or have limited means, please request free membership here. Otherwise, it is $8 a month. 

“I keep meeting people who lack a community to discuss societal collapse. We need healthy spaces to discuss our response. That’s why I participate in the Metacrisis Initiative.” Josie McLean, PhD, Co-founder, Climate Coaching Alliance

“The peer mentoring has created a tight bond with people who were strangers at first, around this sometimes heavy subject. It’s an opportunity for me to connect with my feelings, whilst not being overwhelmed by them.” Bibi Gratzer, Sacred Union Podcast. 

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A dozen disputed but now demonstrable facts about climate change from the consequential Deep Adaptation paper of 2018

white clouds and blue sky

As I drafted the first part of the Deep Adaptation paper in 2018, I sought to summarise what I had concluded was the most salient climate science that established “the premise that it is time we consider the implications of it being too late to avert a global environmental catastrophe in the lifetimes of people alive today.” In the months and years after the paper went viral with a million downloads, there was a backlash from top climatologists and environmental professionals. One of the main arguments from experts dismissing the paper was the lack of peer review. But years later, it’s been reviewed by reality, in the form of observational data about our current climate. There were a dozen claims in Deep Adaptation which were disputed by mainstream climatology but are now considered decided by science, or demonstrable by observational data. In 8 years, these dozen claims went from contentious to near consensus.

In this essay, I will summarise the claims made in the paper, compared to what the position was of ‘establishment climatology’ (as represented by IPCC and top climatologists), and what is near-consensus in 2026. My purpose here is not to update the record, defend past contributions, or complain about mistakes by individuals. Instead, I aim to contribute to a discussion of how organised science and the environmental professions can avoid making new mistakes based on the same dynamics that led to past ones. Those mistakes included not confirming and communicating the twelve claims I will explain in this essay. They also included dismissing, suppressing, and sometimes demonising such claims and the people making them. Unless such mistakes are recognised, even privately, then they can be repeated in new ways, with significant consequences for what is an existential issue.

Although some top climatologists may wish to claim they warned us about what is happening to our world, the truth is they didn’t predict the extent or speed of current changes and publicly claimed that they were avoidable with the right policies. This departure of lived reality from established views, and potentially some underlying theories, means that earnest forms of integrative research analysis can be more welcome in future. For instance, when critics claimed I was cherry-picking the science, they were ignoring the important process of salience-picking from a mass of information for identification of real-world implications and applications of knowledge. Research analysts with the necessary skills and a focus on identifying what describes reality, not what is an interesting area for further investigation, can sometimes be better at salience identification than scientists within an established academic discipline. Consequently, there remains a role for such integrative analysis, just as there remains a role for climate scientists working within various institutions that combine to produce what becomes establishment climatology.

After interrogating the claims in this essay, I believe you will agree that the recent data and research confirm that the alarmists on climate were mostly right, and our critics were wrong, so we could all learn from that to guide a better response today, without further mistakes due to the dynamics which produced previous ones. That presents us with a fresh challenge. Without boasting and blaming, nor pride and prejudice, professionals in climate science and communications must now find a deeper level of courage, to explore what has been overlooked or marginalised in the past, to then call people to action on a wider agenda, including emergency adaptation, environmental restoration, and economic transformation, alongside the remaining challenge of carbon cuts and drawdown.  

The dozen climate-related claims in Deep Adaptation (Bendell, 2018)

Claim 1: Sea-level rise is accelerating worldwide. I made this claim based on global satellite data that was available at the time.[1][Numbered references are at the end of the document]. Therefore, it was already an observed reality, but it hadn’t been confirmed as scientific fact, nor discussed as a centrally-important indicator, in establishment climatology at that time. The IPCC AR5 in 2014 was cautious, noting that the rate of rise detected during the satellite era (from 1993 onward) was higher than the 20th-century average, without making that a headline finding. In 2021, in their AR6 publication, the IPCC recognised acceleration in sea level rise as an established observation rather than a tentative finding. A study in 2026 confirmed a doubling of the rate of the global rise.[2]

Claim 2: Climate change is probably accelerating. I argued that the acceleration of sea-level rise is a good indicator of what is happening in the global climate system, as the most contributory causes are thermal expansion of water and ice melt from on-land sources. The only theoretical caution on that view is if part of the rise is a delayed response from thermal expansion of water at deeper depths due to past warmer surface waters mixing with them. However, top climatologist Professor Stefan Rahmstorf had already noted in 2007 that, all things considered, sea level is one of the most robust indicators of long-term warming because it integrates climate changes over time rather than reflecting short-term atmospheric fluctuations. Adding evidence of accelerating sea level rise to the science on heat-amplifying feedbacks, I concluded that we were probably at the start of greater acceleration in climate change. At the time, the scientific establishment did not agree (e.g. IPCC AR5). In 2021, in the AR6, the IPCC reported the acceleration in warming, reaching 0.2°C per decade in the period 2001–2020. However, it did not make that a key finding, and many of the most famous climatologists continued to claim there was no acceleration. Despite them, it is now widely agreed that the rate of climate change has already accelerated, with disagreements on how fast and why. Key texts on this came out in scientific journals in 2024[3] and 2026.[4] I continued my own research analysis on the topic, going to COP27 in Egypt in 2022 to warn about aerosol reductions leading to heat acceleration.[5] Then I went further last year, summarising the evidence and theory for declines in natural cloud seeding from large forests and healthy oceans.[6]

Claim 3: Natural carbon sinks, including forests and oceans, will probably decline and some turn into sources of carbon, so natural emissions will increase. I cited the science available on this issue at the time. I also pointed to the science on how the carbon fertilization effect on plants was probably reaching its limit, thereby removing this past buffer. However, the consensus at the IPCC since 2014 had been that the carbon fertilization effect would mean that during this century there would be an expanding uptake of CO2, before a future decline in high warming scenarios. Today the evidence is extensive that the global carbon cycle has already been altered to reduce the effectiveness of both land and ocean sinks. One integrative study in 2025 found that this already accounts for around 8%, of the observed increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration.[7] A study the previous year reported on the certain end of the carbon fertilization effect on land due to the extent of recent warming.[8] Another paper reported that in 2023 the global non-polar oceans probably absorbed about 10% less CO₂ than expected due to heating up.[9] The long term prospects could also be more bleak than previously assessed, as one study in 2026 found that microbes break down far more carbon into CO2 after decades of being in a significantly warmer environment.[10]

Claim 4: Self-amplifying feedback threatens further acceleration of heating despite potential emissions cuts. In the paper I wrote: “Non-linear changes are of central importance to understanding climate change, as they suggest both that impacts will be far more rapid and severe than predictions based on linear projections and that the changes no longer correlate with the rate of anthropogenic carbon emissions. In other words – ‘runaway climate change.’” I did not use the term ‘runaway’ warming to claim exponential or eternal warming, despite subsequent negative misrepresentations of the paper. At the time, some scientists were working on the concept of ‘tipping points’ where there would be irreversible forward lurches in warming, but establishment climatology was not foregrounding this issue. For instance, in AR5, the IPCC mentioned such dangers in the context of “long term climate change: projections” with low confidence in predicting their likelihood during this century.[11] Today, there is more serious analysis and discussion of such tipping points. Some analysis concludes that certain tipping points are probably already passed, in the range of 1.5C global warming above pre-industrial levels.[12] That average heat has already occurred for a whole year, and less than that average is unlikely to be witnessed again by our generation (although in 2026 mainstream climatologists continue to frame it as a potentially temporary overshoot).[13] Analysis of the Earth’s net incoming energy-flux imbalance has helped to clarify this situation. Some experts in that field concluded that the data “implies a climate sensitivity much larger than is generally accepted, and under some interpretations even runaway warming.”[14] Some scientists have concluded that whatever humans do with emissions cuts, sea ice in the Arctic will disappear in the years ahead. [15] Because of the probable return of Arctic sea ice in the winter after a summer without it, some scientists prefer not to regard such a change as a tipping point, despite how the additional heat captured in the oceans from ice-free summers then makes the ice-free winters inevitable, further amplifying warming, massively.

Claim 5: The rise of atmospheric methane concentrations is accelerating, and we cannot be sure if one source of increase is from the oceans, which points towards potential existential risk. At the time of publishing Deep Adaptation, the consensus science, as represented by AR5 of the IPCC was that rising methane concentrations were not certainly accelerating and that a largescale release of methane from the sea floor was very unlikely, so not something for near-term concern. Since then, observational data has continued to show unanticipated non-linear increases in methane concentrations in the atmosphere, confirming my claim in 2018.[16] That has been difficult to explain with existing methane sources, and it is also difficult to use isotopes to differentiate methane hydrates on the seabed from some other sources, such as wetlands. The view of establishment climatology remains that a massive release of methane from the seabed is not a significant risk this century.[17] New studies confirm my view that subsea sources are something to remain curious about, observe carefully, and include in our scenarios. In 2026, a study reported that ancient methane is demonstrably escaping from Arctic subsea permafrost systems.[18] There is also evidence that methane hydrates on the sea floor can migrate around 40 km, so can be released into shallower depths where they can reach the atmosphere.[19] Obviously, I am intensely relieved that I could find nothing more significant to report on this topic, other than the worrying data just summarised.

Claim 6: Do not rely entirely on climate computer modelling to assess future risks. The Deep Adaptation paper set aside establishment climatology’s reliance on computer modelling of future climate scenarios as the centrepiece of discussions on global warming. Instead, I focused on what, as an outside research analyst, I considered the most salient research findings (including the paleo record) and current indicators (such as sea level rise acceleration). Since then, some model simulations were misrepresented for a narrative to run for a few years that warming would stop after emissions hypothetically ceased, which was strongly debunked by 2024.[20] In addition, some experts and journalists scraped some good news stories together from hypotheticals involving tweaks to model simulations.[21] Previously in 2019, the latest and most sophisticated models projected far hotter temperatures,[22] which were closer to my 2018 conclusions, only for them to be deprioritised by establishment climatologists in a rather arbitrary way.[23] By 2026 that deprioritising was found to be untenable, after incorporating recent measurements on the Earth’s energy imbalance.[24] Over the last 8 years, some of the world’s leading modellers, such as Dr Wolfgang Knorr, have criticised the rather worshipful deference to modelling. However, models remain the centrepiece of mainstream climatology, with top scientists arguing that any failings of models should mean more funding for better modelling. Also in 2026, measurements of changes in the world’s climate revealed that many of the models being relied on were likely underestimating future heating.[25] That adds weight to the view we shouldn’t be relying entirely on models for risk assessments. Perhaps 2026 will come to be seen as the year that models lost their primacy in climate policy advisory.

Claim 7: Global average heating above pre-industrial of 2C is not a smart ceiling to avoid, as many heat amplifiers would already be triggered before then. In the paper I did not focus on what I considered to be the mythical story that avoiding a 2C ceiling of heating might be safe and enable humanity to bring down temperatures. I regarded such discussions as much about giving space for professionals and policy makers to discuss incremental change. A few months after my paper, with the IPCC report on 1.5C, there was far wider support for the idea that 1.5C might be a lower ceiling for ‘safe’ climate change, by avoiding self-amplification. That began a global communications effort about staying below 1.5C, despite it being obvious to independent scholars, and to climatologists when speaking in private, that accelerating climate change already meant limiting it to below 1.5C was impossible. By 2022, some climatologists were already pointing to evidence that 1.5C would not be safe either.[26] There is already observational data on this matter, with one study analysing current impacts to conclude that past assessments of climate risk to ecosystems underestimated the biological consequences of warming.[27] That backs up early studies which explained how models underestimated the weather extremes and volatility that are relevant to damage to ecosystems (and agriculture).[28]

Claim 8: Emissions won’t come down so we won’t likely stay below 2C. My paper explained that modern societies, including transport and agriculture, are highly dependent on fossil fuels, so emissions were steadily increasing and scenarios for reductions were unrealistic. Despite my wishes for the salvation of society, humanity and biodiversity, as evidenced by my decades of prior work, I did not entertain magical thinking about a sudden achievement of (net) zero emissions globally. Eight years later, annual global fossil CO2 emissions are around 4% higher than in 2018. [29] Moreover, the rate at which CO2 is accumulating in the atmosphere increased, reaching a record 3.76 ppm per year in 2024, compared with 2.39 ppm in 2018.[30] Meanwhile, official assessments of government policies conclude that countries remain off track to meet their emissions targets.[31] Worse, a major study in 2025 found that emissions have been about 15% higher than that reported by countries.[32] Then we could review the political trends in various countries, and the various conflicts, with implications for climate action – which would be a whole other essay.

Claim 9: Impacts on agriculture are key and make this matter one of societal relevance, including peace and security. The most quoted part of the Deep Adaptation paper was when I departed from academic writing style and addressed the reader directly about how societal collapse can be frightening to experience. I explained that the impacts of climate change on agriculture could be severe and have knock on effects on crime, conflict and migration. At the time, the impacts on agriculture were not at the forefront of discussions on climate change, especially not in the society, where it was largely considered an issue for ecosystems and non-human animals. The AR5 report of the IPCC did give it some attention but assessed that crop yield losses exceeding 5% become more likely than not beyond 2050, and that risks to global food security would only become large at around 4°C of warming. Since then, the impacts on agriculture are more widely analysed and forecast to impact humanity hard by mid-century. One massive study estimated that each additional 1C of global warming reduces the global availability of calories from the crops they studied by approximately 120 calories per person per day. That is about 4.4% of average daily consumption per degree of warming, with the actual impacts being grossly unequally experienced.[33] That is a significant contributor to an assessment by a UK professional group of actuaries that there might be 4 billion fatalities if the world passes 3.0C by 2050. [34] My own further study on the topic in March 2023 explained the contribution of climate change to wider mechanics of food system breakdown.[35]

Claim 10: Countries will turn to carbon capture technologies that won’t make a significant impact and waste huge resources. In the paper I explained that capitalism would problematically shape future responses to climate change, just as it had shaped the problem, the diminishment of it, and the ineffective responses until that point. This approach was enshrined in global climate policy when the IPCC illogically included direct air capture and storage (DACCS) in its modelling of future scenarios in 2023 in AR6 – a magical techno wand to maintain the charade of a managed transition. A comprehensive review, synthesising more than 800 publications on the topic, concludes that DACCS remain constrained by high costs, substantial energy requirements, with any scaling dependent on long-term government subsidy and their impact being tiny compared to something climate-significant.[36] Clearly, PR and lobbying firms did their job, so Western governments have allocated huge subsidies to DACCS over the last few years, in what is another example of the existentially-treacherous role of corporations and their puppets in government.

Claim 11: Societal collapse is a reasonable expectation of the impacts from climate change, when interacting with other factors. When trying to tie everything together for understanding the situation, in the Deep Adaptation paper I wrote: “We do not know for certain how disruptive the impacts of climate change will be or where will be most affected, especially as economic and social systems will respond in complex ways. But the evidence is mounting that the impacts will be catastrophic to our livelihoods and the societies that we live within. Our norms of behaviour, that we call our “civilisation,” may also degrade.” I called for greater attention to adaptation to the changes, including going far deeper than the ideas for how to adapt at that time. I argued that it is irresponsible to regard that agenda as a theoretical defeat for the climate aware, as it concerns a reality we will live through. Years later, the need for urgent adaptation is now more widely discussed. Over 600 scholars from around the world joined me to sign a public “Scholars’ Warning on Societal Disruption and Collapse”.[37] There is now a diverse field of ‘collapsology’[38] and updates to past predictions of the collapse of our civilisation.[39] Over a hundred academic papers, across disciplines discuss aspects of Deep Adaptation as an impetus, ethos and/or framework.[40] However, the topic of societal collapse is not being discussed as an inevitability by establishment scientists and mainstream media. Instead, some climatologists and professional bodies are warning of the likelihood of mass death (as mentioned above) which would constitute collapse in some parts of the world. My own view on this has evolved, as I put the stressors from climate in the context of wider fractures in the foundations of modern industrial consumer societies.[41]

Claim 12: Near-term human extinction risk is something to take seriously as we assess priorities for action. In the paper I wrote: “Nothing is certain. But it is sobering that humanity has arrived at a situation of our own making where we now debate the strength of analyses of our near-term extinction.” I did not predict near-term extinction, regarding it as a possibility if nothing significant changed. At the time, this topic was either never mentioned, or actively dismissed, by establishment climatologists. Some even actively worked inside the environmental action group Extinction Rebellion so it would not talk about human extinction risk; nor about societal collapse. In recent years, some climatologists have moved on from that view and call for some of the worst-case scenarios to be analysed by science and incorporated into policy assessments.[42] A scientific assessment published in 2026 from some of the world’s most experienced climatologists reported that the world is warming so fast that we may be close to cascading feedback loops that eventually make it uninhabitable.[43]

Learning from past mistakes to improve scientific understanding and action on climate and environment

The concern that some people expressed when the Deep Adaptation paper became well known was my personal conclusion that the processes of climate change will lead us to societal collapse, inevitably, whatever the human response might be. As I’ve written elsewhere, a weakness in the paper was that I did not explain the mechanisms by which collapse would unfold. Therefore, I conducted a 2-year multi-disciplinary research project which concluded with the book Breaking Together. In that text I set out the evidence that can be interpreted as widespread societal collapse being an unfolding process rather than an inevitable future event.

In the Deep Adaptation paper, I had argued that we must try to reduce the speed and harm of that collapse, save lives and more of the biosphere, and increase the chances of future forms of society. Those arguments were disregarded by people who assumed that inevitable collapse would mean we would not try to reduce or drawdown emissions. I regard that as their projection, related to an understandable aversion to societal collapse, which then drove processes of denial that I had even mapped out in the second half of the paper. This reaction may be one reason why some scientists offered broad unspecific dismissals and major distortions of the paper’s claims on climatology. Claims which were correct at the time, and more demonstrably so today.

Fortunately, not everyone was distracted by the criticism. There was a huge response around the world, not just to the Deep Adaptation paper, but to more alarming interpretations of the situation with the world’s climate. People were radicalised, changed careers, and new groups started up to help advance an agenda of social change ahead of further disruption and collapse. That has included people quitting various jobs to go full time in Extinction Rebellion, boards deciding to reorient multimillion dollar foundations towards understanding collapse risk and readiness, an academic quitting and setting up MEER (Mirrors for Earth’s Energy Rebalancing), and launching international or national adaptation groups. We have not all agreed on the ideal responses, but we have all learned a lot over the past 8 years. With feedback, the Deep Adaptation framework for inquiring into how to respond has evolved to six guiding questions (the 6Rs). It is now complemented by a framework for our personal capabilities or orientations to cultivate in the face of collapse (the ‘reckon’ framework). More recently, a menu for how to begin to prepare for disruption and collapse in a light-hearted, collaborative and creative way is being used (‘rainbow prepping’).

Although my life is busy from working on such matters, I returned to reading climatology this year because there could be great benefit from the leaders and institutions in the sector recognising their mistakes in order not to make new ones on what is a matter of existential threat. Conducting scientific research on climate and the environment is essential, and I am grateful for the people who continue to do the science, especially as it can trigger such difficult emotions. I know how it can generate a general sense of dread and sadness, not confined to one’s working hours, as I have experienced that again over the last two months, while researching for this essay. For such effort and resources to be worth it, we need to discuss how to better gain insight from that scientific endeavour.

Why did the mainstream miss a dozen key insights on climate change at the time, yet someone analysing their research from the outside identified them? And why did many mainstream scientists feel confident enough about their incorrect readings of the situation to join the criticism of Deep Adaptation? Why did climate and environment journalists not report more critically on what was being concluded, or the implications for the public? These questions need more serious exploration. So before concluding this essay, I will offer a few thoughts on them.

It’s neither corruption and conspiracy, nor laziness and stupidity, that led to deficient understandings of the climate crisis by mainstream climatology and the environmental climate policy community. Nor is it merely the dynamics of denial that I described in the second half of the Deep Adaptation paper. Rather, it is a widely understood and documented phenomenon throughout the history of science, and fields of knowledge more broadly. Deficient understandings arise from the psychological and institutional dynamics that occur within any established field of scholarship. I discussed them in my book Breaking Together, and will briefly mention them here. There is a lot of scholarship on each area, so if you are interested, I recommend using DeepSeek to get started (10 times less energy and water usage than the AIs from Big Tech firms). Yes, I am not going to reference everything like I did earlier (normal life and less depressing activity are beckoning me back).

First, there is a siloed approach to scientific endeavour which can leave a lack of skill and support for scientists towards lateral thinking and salience identification. It is essential that scientific research asks “what we don’t know yet” within their specialist expertise. But that is not enough to assess what is most important to know now for assessments of risk and action. When engaged in research professionally then the aim, implicit or explicit, is always to do more research. However, as I mentioned at the start of this essay, if we analyse scientific research from outside a specific discipline, then our aim can be to assess what’s relevant for life on the basis of existing information. That’s been explored elsewhere as ‘post-normal science’.[44] The issue becomes whether one has the necessary time and right skills for such analysis. In my book, I explain the components of ‘critical wisdom’ which help one to do such analysis. Another way of describing it is to allow more possibility for integrative and context-aware cognitive processing, associated with the right hemisphere of the brain.[45]

A second area of psychological and institutional dynamics affecting knowledge production and dissemination are the habits associated with occupational closure, occupational expansion, and peer esteem. These are well discussed by sociological research on professions, the history of science, and disruptive innovation. Every field of work that professionalises must uphold agreed standards in ways that then lead to suspicion and negation of potential contributions from outside the profession. That standardising brings benefits but can also compound systemic biases and blind spots within a profession. In addition, any profession has a natural interest in its expansion, to generate more employment and career opportunities. That interest can lead management of institutions in such professions to focus on topics, approaches and narratives, that more easily generate funding, such as computer modelling and the associated idea of managing risk with technical adjustments to societies. On top of that, a normal desire for peer esteem, and to avoid peer disdain, acts as a form of self-policing, which isn’t conducive for open inquiry. I know how powerful these effects are, as I had to make the decision to deny the utility of much of my past work, my sub-discipline of academia, and be prepared to lose my job or resign.

A third factor influencing the field of climatology has been our culture of modernism, combined with an understandable concern about the effects of communicating alarming news to the public. We see that when nothing in the data of a scientist’s new study is positive, but they still include statements about it being not too late to avoid some unspecified outcome, if there is a magical change of everything. Giving homage to the secular God of positivity and progress is widely assumed to be the ‘permission slip’ for being respected. In private, the story is often different. Nine out of ten climatologists anonymously told a newspaper they did not believe humanity would manage to stay below 2C global warming. That was 17 years ago.[46] Despite working on sustainability, I did not hear about that for nearly a decade. In that time, like so many people, I worked incredibly hard (making personal sacrifices) on what some scientists were privately regarding as a redundant agenda. They were the experts paid to determine what is happening in our world but felt the need to self-censor their intuitive processing of the situation when communicating publicly.

A fourth factor has been the scientific deference and time-constraints of mainstream journalists, and the ideological blinkers of their editors. Even now that some famous climatologists are proven to have been incorrect by current observational data, they are still quoted for the truth on the climate situation. Journalists are grateful for obtaining a response and having some validation for their writing by including a famous name. When some journalists make the time to go deeper into a subject, they then need to get past the editors, who act as ideological police. One example is how one of NPR’s best journalists had her documentary on my work cancelled just the week before broadcast as “we can’t put that out”. There are many other examples, but to recap on either the attacks or suppression would be depressing.

Recognising that science always gains and loses something from institutionalisation doesn’t mean we just shrug our shoulders and move on. What is key, is that once observational data clearly disproves some established understandings and challenges the focus of scholarship, and the related policies, is that professionals seriously admit their mistakes. To seriously, not superficially, admit mistakes, involves: first, recognising the materiality of those mistakes to society; second, to be open to the possible causes of those mistakes; third, to make efforts to not make new mistakes in future that would derive from those causes. Therefore, simply correcting past mistakes is not enough, as it means the person might be making new ones due to the same dynamics. In the field of climatology, that means if a scientist says they predict a far greater amount of heating and damage by 2050, that is not good enough. To do so, without introspection and openness, on how to not make new mistakes, would display an unseriousness. That would not matter as much if we weren’t talking about something so existential for humanity. To encourage urgent learning, we must ask:

  • What might be the blind spots in climatology today, due to the various factors that shape and limit any institutionalised field of inquiry?
  • What topics are journalists not taking the time to explore and challenge, to bring focus on what’s important?

As you might have guessed, I have some ideas. The obvious one is that we need a focus on emergency adaptation. However, I have another idea, related to the causes of climate heating itself. I want to see climatologists and environmentalists look at whether carbon might only be half the story for explaining the most recent climate changes from human impacts. The only potential good news about the recent awful spikes in global temperatures is that they might not only be due to background warming from carbon gases. The clue is the rapid drop in the reflectivity of the planet, due to the loss of cloud cover, which is especially important over oceans, where the sunlight is mostly absorbed.[47] That points us towards what processes have been reducing cloud cover. It is why I have been advocating more attention to biohydrological cycles, as part of a more panecological approach to climate. In simple terms, we need to look at how to restore natural cloud seeding processes by large forests and healthy oceans, to increase the chances of the survival of societies in a scenario of climate chaos. When you next have some time to read my work, please read this essay on what I am talking about.[48]

Some people with an audience on climate and environment are beginning to change their public explanations. One of my past critics, from the research nonprofit Berkeley Earth, told Propublica that meeting goals to limit global warming has become “functionally impossible.”[49] A few famous environmentalists now state publicly that it is too late for stopping catastrophic change, despite telling those of us who said that before to “shut up”.[50] If more leading voices explore the dynamics that generated past mistakes, then new mistakes arising from the same dynamics could be avoided. Know someone who might be ready to move? To commit to learn more about what could be improved in climate science and its communication? Please send them this essay.

To be continued…

—

The Deep Adaptation paper is available here, including translations. I made minor corrections in 2020 which did not change any of the 12 claims listed above, nor remove other claims. Like so much on this matter, the content or implications of the update was misrepresented e.g. even now on Wikipedia.


[1] Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era | PNAS

[2] ‘Severe’ stress on oceans as rate of sea level rise doubles in 10 years, UN warns | Oceans | The Guardian

[3] Global Warming Has Accelerated: Are the United Nations and the Public Well-Informed?

[4] Global Warming Has Accelerated Significantly – 2026 – Geophysical Research Letters

[5] Climate Honesty – Ending Climate Brightsiding – YouTube

[6] The Dangers of Climate Dogma – and what we can do about it – Prof Jem Bendell

[7] Emerging climate impact on carbon sinks in a consolidated carbon budget | Nature

[8] Weakening of global terrestrial carbon sequestration capacity under increasing intensity of warm extremes | Nature Ecology & Evolution

[9] Unexpected decline in the ocean carbon sink under record-high sea surface temperatures in 2023 | Nature Climate Change

[10] Three decades of continuous warming in temperate forests destabilizes persistent forms of soil organic matter – ScienceDirect

[11] https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter12_FINAL.pdf

[12] Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. – University of Exeter – Figshare

[13] Implications of overshoot for climate mitigation strategies | Nature Climate Change

[14] Earth’s net incoming energy-flux imbalance (and its implications for understanding climate change) | View | MPG.PuRe

[15] Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario | Nature Communications

[16] Global methane emissions rebounded in 2024 despite a deceleration in atmospheric growth | Nature Communications

[17] IPCC AR6 Working Group 1: Technical Summary | Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis

[18] Triple-isotopic analyses pinpoint microbial methane release from subsea permafrost in the inner Laptev Sea | Communications Earth & Environment

[19] Long-distance migration and venting of methane from the base of the hydrate stability zone | Nature Geoscience.

[20] ESD – Exploring climate stabilisation at different global warming levels in ACCESS-ESM-1.5

[21] Climate Honesty – are we ‘beyond catastrophe’? – Prof Jem Bendell

[22] New climate models predict a warming surge | Science | AAAS

[23] Climate simulations: recognize the ‘hot model’ problem | Nature

[24] Recent Temperature and Energy Imbalance Trends Point to Higher Estimates of Future Warming – Gyuleva – 2026 – Earth’s Future – Wiley Online Library

[25] ESD – Climate models with moderate climate sensitivity best simulate the magnitude of Earth’s energy imbalance

[26] Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points | Science

[27] Reassessment of the risks of climate change for terrestrial ecosystems | Nature Ecology & Evolution

[28] State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes | Nature Communications

[29] ESSD – Global Carbon Budget 2025

[30] Trends in CO2 – NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory

[31] Emissions Gap Report 2025 | UNEP – UN Environment Programme

[32] Worldwide inference of national methane emissions by inversion of satellite observations with UNFCCC prior estimates | Nature Communications

[33] Impacts of climate change on global agriculture accounting for adaptation | Nature

[34] Planetary Solvency – finding our balance with nature

[35] Beyond fed up: six hard trends that lead to food system breakdown – University of Cumbria Research Portal

[36] An ecosystem of carbon dioxide removal reviews – part 1: direct air CO2 capture and storage | Energy & Environmental Science | The Royal Society of Chemistry

[37] Initiative for Leadership and Sustainability: International Scholars Warning on Societal Disruption and Collapse

[38] Societal collapse: A literature review – ScienceDirect

[39] Update to limits to growth: Comparing the World3 model with empirical data – Herrington – 2021 – Journal of Industrial Ecology – Wiley Online Library

[40] +”Deep Adaptation” +climate – Google Scholar

[41] Breaking Together – The Schumacher Institute

[42] Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios

[43] The risk of a hothouse Earth trajectory: One Earth

[44] Deep Adaptation: Navigating the Realities of Climate Chaos | Wiley

[45] The Master and His Emissary: The Divided Brain and the Making of the Western World by Iain McGilchrist | Goodreads

[46] World will not meet 2C warming target, climate change experts agree | Climate crisis | The Guardian

[47] Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo | Science

[48] The Dangers of Climate Dogma – and what we can do about it – Prof Jem Bendell

[49] https://www.propublica.org/article/wedges-climate-research-bp-fossil-fuel-princeton

[50] ‘It’s too late’: David Suzuki says the fight against climate change is lost

Here are some frameworks for helping each other amidst the mess

colorful abstract swirls in vibrant tones

Billions of people are experiencing strange weather, rising prices, bad politics, and watching worse on the news. Sadly, there are a range of distracting responses similar to what I predicted in my first speech on the topic of collapse, back in November 2016. Despite that, there are many people seeking to integrate their awareness of the predicament into how they approach life from now on. That is why I updated and added to the Deep Adaptation framework of questions, which helps us explore how to respond. As the concept is used within hundreds of initiatives, people have their own ideas about how to deeply adapt, but I believe the upgraded framework is a useful and more comprehensive tool.

As I noticed more people feel anxious about disruption and collapse, I complemented the Deep Adaptation framework with two new models. First, is an approach to personal development, called the RECKON framework. It has been shaping the type of qualities and orientations we are cultivating in each in the peer mentoring of the Metacrisis Initiative (called metacritical mentoring). Second, is a set of 15 action areas, which I dub ‘rainbow prepping’ to emphasise how they enact a more positive orientation than many prepping conversations and initiatives.

Below I provide brief summaries of the concepts, as well as what I mean by societal collapse and the metacrisis. If you wonder if some people sound lost in the face of disruptions and bad news, then this post/email could be useful if you would send it to them. We will discuss the Rainbow Prepping approach in our next Metacrisis salon (meeting info follows at end).

Societal Collapse

A process of the breakdown of modern industrial societies is already underway, driven by ecological degradation and the internal contradictions of an expansionist economic system. As there is such overshoot and momentum, although breakdown could be softened and new systems seeded, the process can’t be stopped, and so collapse is an appropriate term. It does not necessarily mean near term human extinction, but that becomes increasingly likely without massive awakening and organising. See Chapter 1 of Breaking Together for a fuller discussion. 

Metacrisis

A useful term for our global predicament, for some of our conversations, can be “the metacrisis.” The term points towards a deeper crisis underlying the myriad problems we experience today, in politics, economics, culture, health and environment. That underlying crisis is in the assumptions, values, beliefs, norms and habits of our societies. Therefore, the term metacrisis can invite us to consider what is in crisis within ourselves, which can be the beginning of deeper transformations. However, many commentators avoid that when they use the term to speak of a degradation of the traditional values and economic structures which privilege them, rather than realising that is what drives the disruption and degradation. See my speech on ‘the magic of the metacrisis’ for a fuller discussion.  

Deep Adaptation

After becoming collapse aware, many people are inspired to change their lives and engage in a pro-social and pro-environmental manner. That involves working on adapting personally and collectively to increasing disruption, loss, and damage. Some people find the term deep adaptation useful to explain their approach. Some use the 6R framework of Deep Adaptation, which I developed, for their reflections and discussions. The term and concept became well known after my paper in 2018 with that title went viral. See the completed framework for a fuller discussion of the topics of Resilience, Relinquishment, Restoration, Reconciliation, Reclamation and Regeneration.

Rainbow Prepping

Preparedness for disasters and collapse can be reframed from defensive survivalism to a positive, collaborative approach. Unlike conventional prepping’s grim defensiveness, ‘rainbow prepping‘ emphasizes living kindly and cooperatively amid disruption. The concept offers fifteen action areas (organized as a mnemonic) spanning residence Resilience, Amusement sustainability, Income diversification, Neighbourhood involvement, Business localisation, Orthobiotic wellbeing, Water/food security, Practical skills, Relocation readiness, Ecological stewardship, Psychological wholeness, Political engagement, Information and interaction sovereignty, Needs simplification, and Gumption promotion. Rather than a burdensome “to-do” list, these areas form a “play list” inviting exploration. The rainbow symbolizes both hope after storms, connection between earthly and divine, and the celebration of diversity. It points to an approach to collapse readiness that maintains dignity, creativity, and joy even as the systems we depend upon become unreliable.

Metacritical Mentoring

Collapse-aware people need supportive spaces that honour difficult realities without delusional positivity or professional gatekeeping. Therefore, evolving professional and life coaching so it equips us to live within the metacrisis and is more widely available, is an important challenge and opportunity. Unlike conventional models assuming stable progress and individual optimization, Metacritical Mentoring foregrounds collective truth telling and liberation, emotional authenticity, adaptive capacity, and critical wisdom. Participants mentor each other as equals, welcoming difficult emotions like grief and dread as sources of insight rather than obstacles. The approach seeks to cultivate “heartfulness”—compassionate presence. The approach in the Metacrisis Initiative aims to democratize access by not relying on paid professionals. It also invites meta critique of the process itself, to empower the evolution of practices and models.

RECKON orientations framework

This is a personal development model of six orientations for responding meaningfully to the metacrisis and societal collapse. Reality-facing means courageously acknowledging difficult truths without denial. Emotional appreciation involves processing difficult feelings as sources of intelligence rather than weakness. Critical wisdom integrates logic, mindfulness, intuition, and critical literacy to see clearly and resist manipulation. Kinship responsibility recognises our interdependence with all life and future generations. Organic meaning releases attachment to progress ideology in favour of presence and participation. Numinous adaptability is the term offered for flexible identity adjustment while maintaining ethical grounding and embracing spiritual transformation. These RECKON orientations complement the 6Rs of Deep Adaptation, addressing how we respond, not just what we respond to, grounded in heartfulness and contemplative liberation.

For a more comprehensive list of the concepts I use in the field of deep adaptation, see the Key Ideas page.

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Then catch me elsewhere…

Rainbow Prepping – a brighter way to get ready for collapse

Why read? Here’s a 4 minute chat about the essay.

The farcical nature of some prepping activities can make rather dark comedy. Let’s face it, not many of us are suited to archery or skinning a rabbit! That’s why the movie “We’re All Going To Die” is such an engaging watch (view at the end). At the movie premiere in Berlin, I mentioned that anyone who seriously engages in personal prepping for either disasters or broader societal collapse, soon realises they can’t do it alone. That is demonstrated well by a popular collapse-commentor, Jessica Wildfire, whose blog portrays a roller coaster of attempts at prepping, giving up and enjoying the moment, to ultimately regarding prepping as a necessarily ongoing aspect to modern life. Many people are joining that ride, with the prepping sector booming by selling items like 6 months of prepacked non-refrigerated food. Even some friends and family who haven’t read my work on collapse have begun storing essentials and watching videos on how they might cope better in disasters. So I thought it a useful time to systematise and share some thoughts about ‘prepping.’

Discussions and initiatives have evolved in some parts of the world towards ‘solidarity prepping’ in communities and even ‘insurgent planning’ to prepare for disasters. That arises from a more collaborative mindset, but it can involve some of the same underlying emotions. In my experience, whether focused on individual or collective prepping, a rather grim defensiveness can pervade discussion. That also applies to some national level conversations about adaptation. Although it is reasonable to frame the environmental situation in terms of national security, that can promote a defensive mindset, and one where action seems like a burden to be taken on by good and courageous persons. That can be a short step away from imagining such people need to impose upon the rest of us for our own good. It is a reaction which, from psychological theories, I predicted would arise amongst collapse-deniers when they finally ditched the idea that tech, education and better policy would transition societies, yet retained the subconscious craving for a story that might suppress their despair [ref 1]. 

As we cannot know whether the form and pace of collapse is fully set, or its full implications for humanity and life on Earth, we can attempt to increase the chances of a lesser catastrophe. Waking up to the predicament doesn’t mean giving up on doing anything. In a speech that will be ten years ago this November, I explained the Deep Adaptation perspective for the first time [ref 2]. Since then I have not seen the goal as being to maximize the odds of individual survival. Nor is the goal about increasing the odds of community or national survival. Rather, I have been inviting attention to increasing the likelihood that we live kindly and cooperatively amid disruption, in ways that create possibilities for both humans and wider life, without any certainty. For the millions of people for whom that idea resonated, it has endorsed a shift from distraction to reflection, from stockpiling to capabilities, and from defence to relationships.  

Over the years most of the leading volunteers in the Deep Adaptation movement didn’t focus on physical preparedness, with some local initiatives being exceptions. Efforts at relocalising economies and spreading soft skills for getting along with each other in stressful times have often been talked about. My own response was to change jobs and country, connect people on this topic, start an organic farm school, share more of my analysis on collapse, and throw myself into devotional music. It’s been quite a ride, and I’ve evolved a lot, but I don’t feel particularly well prepared as a result. Now I realise there could be more discussion of positive approaches to prepping within the Deep Adaptation movement. It is why prepping will be the topic of the next salon of the Metacrisis Initiative. 

To help discussions and initiatives around prepping to be more generative, I’ve developed a list of action areas for real preparedness for societal disruption and collapse. It is a synthesis from a range of sources, which I’ll mention later. I am calling this a list for ‘rainbow prepping’. Perhaps it’s obvious why: when we see a rainbow after a period of rain, it is not only an impressive sight, but indicates a brighter time is coming after a storm. In the Abrahamic story of Noah, after the great flood, we read that God showed a rainbow as a promise to never again destroy the world with water. For me, seeing a rainbow is always a reconnection with my wonder at, and gratitude for, being alive and able to experience beauty. I’ve recently learned that in many cultures, across eras, the rainbow symbolised a connection between the earthly and divine. It represented a bridge between worlds in ancient Norse, Greek, Buddhist, Hawaiian and Japanese myths — perhaps many more. Contemporary usage expresses the beauty of diversity in areas where prejudice is sadly rife. I wish to honour all of that in my use of the term for how we prepare for collapse. 

I recommend we treat the following action areas more like a ‘play list’ than a ‘to do’ list. By that, I mean we can ask ourselves what we are attracted to explore more. My aim is to help avoid the heaviness and anxiety of seeking to survive, and to encourage the people we engage with on preparedness to relate in that way. The fifteen action areas are sequenced for the mnemonic, not in order of their importance:

Residence resilience / Amusement sustainability / Income diversification / Neighbourhood involvement / Business localisation / Orthobiotic living / Water and food security / Practical skill acquisition / Relocation readiness / Ecological stewardship / Psychological wholeness / Political engagement / Information and interaction sovereignty / Needs simplification / Gumption promotion

Residence resilience

Whether you own or rent, think about long-term resilience, in all its dimensions. Firstly, consider whether your location will remain viable under climate, economic and political stresses. Consider improvements in passive heating and cooling, as well as multiple options for additional temperature moderation. Look into reducing potential damage from storms, fires, and floods, including initiatives in your neighbourhood. Have backup lighting, micro-solar charging, safe fuel storage, and a way to cook without electricity. Consider being involved in neighbourhood watch schemes and, if relevant, volunteer fire response teams. Get to know your local police. If possible, adapt your residence to be able to welcome people in need, overnight. If home is where the heart is, it’s time to manifest more of your views and values in your living space.

Amusement sustainability 

You don’t stop wanting to enjoy life just because there’s stuff happening that you don’t enjoy. Now you can reduce your dependence on industrial systems for the ways you enjoy yourself, so that continues even when those systems become unaffordable to you, or disappear. Non-amplified live music, circle dancing, storytelling, poetry reading, potluck meals, offline games, improvisational theatre, drawing, painting, and more. Fun activities can calm nerves and open hearts. So they are not a luxury – they are part of your resilience. Put down your phones. It’s time to unplug your play. 

Income diversification

When you rely on one main source of income, from work or investments, you are more at risk of economic disruption, and more easily silenced. You can assess how to do more work that will remain valuable as the formal economy contracts. Some of that might include the practical skills that I will list later. What we receive from others, and from the environment, is not only through monetary exchange. Growing things, swapping, and sharing, can all be part of income diversity. Could you reduce your outgoings and channel more of your income, or time saved, into that diversity, as well as other aspects of ‘rainbow prepping’? Multiple means of accessing your money is also part of this consideration, which suggests having more than one bank account, a crypto account, and securely storing some cash and precious metals at home.

Neighbourhood involvement

Strong social bonds can be more important than individual preparedness. Know your neighbours, join local initiatives, practise mutual aid, actively resolve conflicts, and generally become someone who contributes to your community. Schools, libraries, religious groups, cooperatives, and volunteer organisations might welcome your help. Explore ways of participating which you might enjoy. Then encourage more understanding within local institutions of the need for local leadership on preparedness for disruptions of various kinds. Promote initiatives for caring for people locally who need support but can’t pay for it and, soon, might not obtain it from the government. Trust is one of the most valuable forms of wealth during disruption, whereas the decline of trust in neighbours is an aspect of collapse itself: don’t be part of that collapse. 

Business localisation

As part of shifting the emphasis of resilience from individuals to communities, we need to produce and buy as much locally as we can. Although various products and services are not suitable for local production, many are. For not being part of a globalised financial system, you can favour cooperative enterprises. You could join initiatives like time banks, tool and equipment sharing systems, savings clubs, and commitment pooling. If you are approaching retirement, consider how you can invest in local organisations in ways that might also generate a passive income if your savings and pensions disappear. Unless a community is knitting itself together economically, it’s only ‘cosplaying’ community, and won’t help during real difficulties. This agenda can also become part of your approach to national and international solidarity – promoting this approach everywhere.

Orthobiotic living

Our health is foundational, yet medical products and systems will become less available, affordable and reliable. Orthobiosis comes from two Greek words: orthos (correct) and bios (life). It is a fancy way of saying that “right living” is when we seek wellness by cooperating with nature rather than fighting it. That includes attention to mobility, cardiovascular fitness, deep rest, sleep, metabolic health, nutrition, gut health, disease vigilance, and complementary therapeutics, including herbs. Maybe you need to adjust priorities in life to release time and money for orthobiosis? Start with what you enjoy. Then get better at how to help the injured, whether yourself or others. Get a home medical kit, learn first aid, and keep spare spectacles (if you need them). Slowing your own physical decline will be good for everyone — it helps to be well to help well.

Water and food security

Without the basics, much of the efforts at preparedness in your household and neighbourhood will fall apart. So assess the vulnerabilities of the supplies you most rely on – drinking water and fresh food – with the aim of making those more secure. It is unlikely this involves self-sufficiency. Instead, participate in or support local efforts at food growing, help some local farmers, know local edibles,and learn food preservation. Then engage the relevant organisations that provide food and water at scale, to encourage their preparedness. Recognising the importance of the security of these essentials will mean attention to physical security, which takes us back to the matters of residence resilience and neighbourhood involvement. Yes, you might need to get political, and we will come to that.

Practical skills 

As the era of cheap replacements and spare cash ends for many of us, practical skills become as valuable as possessions or money. If you ever had an interest in one of the following, now is a good time to learn: carpentry, plumbing, electrics, sewing, bicycle maintenance, fermentation, bee keeping, fire making, fire fighting, massage, holistic therapies, conflict resolution, group facilitation and non-violent self defence. Adopt an attitude of repair, towards clothing, electronics, furniture and appliances. Are you someone others will want on their team? 

Relocation readiness

Unfortunately, many people need to move when faced with disruption. You can become better prepared to evacuate ahead of events such as fires, storms, floods, and military action. Longer term trends can also push a decision to move, such as the cost of living, crime rates, cultural regression, and political repression. Have clear thresholds for deciding when to leave, agreeing with family before a crisis hits. Transport plans, financial reserves, and payment options are important. Emergency international travel also benefits from planning: how well do you know where you would relocate to abroad, are your travel documents up-to-date, and how would you cope if capital controls were applied? Ensure you have multiple physical and digital copies of the various documents required for the administration of your affairs. It could also be useful and fun to maintain relationships with some friends elsewhere in the world. 

Ecological stewardship 

Whatever happens, the environment remains our source of life and our venue for choosing care over violence. You can reduce and resist both pollution and habitat destruction. You can support the regeneration of habitats, including reforestation, watershed restoration, soil regeneration, and help for pollinators. You can reduce and resist human cruelty to animals. You can joyfully refresh and share your wonder at being part of creation. You can do all of this locally, regionally and remotely, both practically and politically, without attachment to outcomes in unpredictably complex living systems.

Psychological wholeness

Anticipating, and living through, societal disruptions and losses, can trigger difficult emotions. We want to avoid making matters worse by our reactions and, better still, express ourselves positively because of the circumstances. Some ideas about life, as well as specific practices, can help you become more comfortable with uncertainty, change, and loss. Consider meditation, prayer, singing, time in nature, journaling, and community service. Make time to consider your values, and any meaning(s) and purpose(s) for your life. Also make time to have your own relationship with infinitude, which might, or might not, involve your sense of the divine and spiritual. Look for relevant groups, or set one up, to support such wholeness within a community.

Political engagement

You can choose to advance, not retreat, politically, due to your awareness of societal disruption and collapse. You can try to influence how politicians and officials realise the levels of destruction, the causes, and how to prepare for, and respond to, specific disruptions and breakdowns. You can engage in local government and national politics, to seek more policies that align with ‘rainbow prepping’ activities. You can participate in civil society groups, including religions and trade unions, to advance that agenda. Look out for novel political activities like people’s assemblies. It is worth remembering that, due to their use of force and massive budgets, little else will have an impact if governments become aggressive on behalf of agendas emerging from deluded or panicked elites. Engaging in politics doesn’t mean assuming collapse can be prevented, but attempting to reduce unnecessary suffering.

Information and Interaction sovereignty

Finding the information you need and interacting with the people and businesses you want to are both essential for coping with disruptions; both functions are highly fragile, due to modern technological dependence. Take steps to maintain your ability to communicate even if cut off (by a hack, physical disruption, or political action). Don’t rely on one global email account and one phone number for all your online access. Don’t rely on phones and cards for all payments. Keep physical records of phone numbers and addresses. Download maps and key files, and install a local version of an open source AI system on your computer. Maintain old landlines. Own micro-solar to recharge devices. In the meantime, don’t let either BigTech algorithms or mainstream media determine your information diet – actively seek out independent professional media sources.

Needs simplification

So much of what we are accustomed to is not necessary for our quality of life. So gradually reduce dependence on stuff and services you pay for. See how you can live comfortably with less energy, fewer new possessions, fewer trips in private vehicles, and a less complex non-seasonal diet. Go deeper into how you can benefit from a non-aquisitional mindset, where you need less certainty, control, savings, connections, contacts, and even less self-advancement. Notice any attachment you might have to the idea of having more children, or prolonging your own life for as long as possible. Become open to self-acceptance as the ultimate self-actualisation. None of this simplification needs to reduce your yearning for more equity and social justice. Change is easier when chosen rather than imposed.

Gumption promotion

In rapidly changing situations where we don’t have a standard answer or routine to follow, we will benefit from people around us being able to decide what is the best thing to do in a particular situation, and then do it with capacity and determination. That is ‘gumption’, and our educational and cultural systems have tended to reduce, not improve, it. In education that is formal or informal, for children or adults, there are opportunities for teaching more practical skills and approaches to, for instance, orthobiotic living, psychological wholeness, and amusement sustainability. Part of gumption is the critical thinking to avoid being manipulated into fear-driven herd behaviour or, in some cases, cults. Helping knowledge transfer between generations can be part of that. A good way to maintain and grow one’s own gumption is to try to help others with theirs. The impact is obvious: someone who trains ten people may contribute more than someone who stores ten months of food.

It took me almost as long to work out how to order these action areas into the ‘rainbow prepping’ mnemonic as it did to identify them. Hopefully, that will help more than myself for remembering them! The categorisation is a bit arbitrary. Perhaps you already noticed not only some overlap, but that actions in the different areas could reinforce one another. Good health helps you contribute to the community. Community improves food security. Live music and singing strengthens relationships. Practical skills support livelihoods. A sense of meaning and purpose can make hardship more bearable. I think this more positive approach to prepping aligns closely with the ethos of Deep Adaptation: preparing not simply to endure disruption, but to help create communities where people continue to experience care, dignity, creativity and even joy as industrial consumer society becomes less dependable. So I regard this list of fifteen action areas as a complement to the existing framework for Deep Adaptation: that comprises six Rs for inquiry into how to begin to respond to an awareness of collapse, and six qualities or orientations to recognise and cultivate in ourselves as we live into more challenging situations. 

Since sharing this ethos in public, nearly 10 years ago, I felt reluctant to describe what we should do, as collapse affects everything in life and responses need to be developed locally and personally. That reluctance was also because I wondered whether a rapid focus on action might avoid the time needed to process the pain of realisation and allow it to transform us at a deeper level. However, as we enter the age of consequences and the discussion on societal collapse spreads, I am pleased to make this contribution to identifying what we could still be doing to help. 

The ideas for the fifteen action areas I have listed in this essay arose from three sources. First, my own assessment of how to prepare. Second, what I’ve learned from people who have been preparing in their own ways. Third, what I have learned is being done around the world by the chroniclers of resilience and adaptation, including the Transition Network, degrowth scholars, Earth Regenerators, Global Ecovillage Network, Local Futures, Global Action Plan UK, and various Deep Adaptation initiatives around the world. With this framework I am re-packing a diverse field of endeavour into something that is, I hope, relatable and memorable for you whenever discussing collapse risk and readiness with people. I have benefitted from the process, as it now leaves me with the clarity that I happily prep for the rainbows I will never see, while enjoying those I do.  

The ‘rainbow prepping’ concept inspired the cover of the German version of Breaking Together. The book is a free download for the duration of Kollapscamp 2026. I hope it helps initiate a translation-review team so we can get a better version out as paperback and audio in due course, with a progressive local publisher. Also until the end of August, there is a 25% reduction on the paperback in English, but only via Amazon (it returns to $22 in September). 

Within the peer mentoring of the Metacrisis Initiative we will use the ‘rainbow prepping’ list of action areas as a means of self assessment, personal reprioritising, and commitment making. You might benefit from asking yourself: in which domains of ‘rainbow prepping’ would I like to play some more?

Later this year, I’ll share some of my own stumbling, humbling, and positive experiences of ‘rainbow prepping’ via my Instagram and Youtube (subscribe to either to be informed). If you are not part of the Metacrisis Initiative and would like to chat about this topic then the Deep Adaptation group on Facebook is one place to start… but don’t get stuck there (remembering your information and interaction sovereignty!).

Stream: We’re All Going To Die – A mostly funny documentary 

Refs: 

1] Psychological insights on discussing societal disruption and collapse | Ata: Journal of Psychotherapy Aotearoa New Zealand  

2] Engaging the Climate Tragedy – Prof Jem Bendell. Lecture given November 29th 2016, at Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia. 

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